EIA: Oil Prices Ended Q3 Stable, Refining Margins Doubled

SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) – Crude oil prices remained remarkably stable in the third quarter, finishing less than a dime below where they began, while diesel refining margins doubled from last year, hitting 2025 highs, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Monday (10/6).

Gasoline refining margins also doubled on the year, breaching five-year averages, the EIA said in a market review posted on the ‘Today in Energy’ column of its website.

The agency said global crude benchmark Brent began July averaging $70 bbl, following the Israel-Iran 12-day war at the end of the second quarter. From there, Brent declined to an average of $67 bbl in August and $68 bbl in September.

In terms of closing difference, the gap was virtually flat, the EIA said.

“Crude oil prices were relatively stable in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), ending the quarter just 9 cents bbl less than they started,” the agency added.

While crude prices sunk to four-month lows, closing September down by 8%, amid worries about back-to-back production hikes by OPEC+, the EIA observed that the supply increases on their own “have not contributed to widespread increases in observable inventories”.

Eight key nations in oil producing alliance OPEC+ agreed on Sunday (10/5) to a joint production hike of 137,000 bpd for November, the same as in October. The market had been speculating on an increase that would be twice or even up to four times larger.

Moving to refinery margins, the EIA noted that diesel crack spreads at New York Harbor soared to 85 cents gallon in July — the highest level since February 2024 — and nearly double the margin from the same period in the previous year.

Gasoline refinery margins began the quarter below the previous five-year average due to high inventories on the East and West Coasts, the EIA observed.

However, the typical end-of-summer decrease in margins was less pronounced this year due to above-average motor gasoline inventory draws, it said.

This movement brought inventories below 2024 levels, allowing the gasoline refinery margin to exceed its five-year average in mid-August for the first time since April.

By early September, gasoline crack spreads were more than double their level versus last year, the EIA added.