EIA Revises Henry Hub Spot Price Down 10% from Aug. STEO

MIAMI, FL (DTN) —  The Energy Information Administration lowered its natural gas price forecast on expectations that high inventories and reduced electric power demand will keep pressure on U.S. benchmark prices heading into winter, according to its Short-Term Energy Outlook report released on Tuesday (9/9).
The Henry Hub spot price, which averaged $2.91 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in August, is now forecast to average about $3.00/MMBtu in the third quarter, down 10% from the August STEO estimate.
U.S. natural gas inventories ended August 6% above the five-year average after robust production and lower LNG exports supported injections, according to the monthly report. By March 2026, storage levels are expected to hold about 1% above the five-year average.
“Our lower price forecast reflects higher storage levels this summer and reduced consumption in the power sector,” according to the report. “We expect inventories will be withdrawn at faster-than-normal rates this winter, putting upward pressure on prices into early 2026, ” the EIA-STEO report stated.
The EIA projects the Henry Hub price will climb towardS $4.60/MMBtu in the first quarter of 2026 as inventories are drawn down, before averaging $3.60/MMBtu for the year. By 2026, EIA expects natural gas prices to nearly double compared with 2024, even as West Texas Intermediate crude prices decline by 38% in the same period.
U.S. marketed natural gas production is forecast to average 117.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025 before easing slightly to 116.8 Bcf/d in 2026. LNG exports are expected to increase by 4.3 Bcf/d from 2024 to 2026, supported by new projects including Golden Pass and Plaquemines LNG, keeping the U.S. positioned as the world’s top exporter.