EIA Sees Brent at $62 in 4Q25 as Global Inventories Rise

DAVENPORT, FL (DTN) — Brent crude is expected to average $62 bbl in the fourth quarter of 2025, versus the $69 bbl average anticipated for all of this year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday (10/7) in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for October.

The third quarter outlook for Brent also runs well below the $81 bbl average in 2024.

WTI crude is seen averaging $58 bbl in the fourth quarter versus $65.79 in the third. For all of 2025, the U.S. crude benchmark is anticipated to average $65 bbl, down sharply from the 2024 average of $76.60.

The EIA attributed the expected price drops to the global stockpile situation in crude.

“We expect global oil inventories to rise through 2026, putting significant

downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months,” it added.

The EIA expects global oil inventories to build by an average of 2.6 million bpd in 4Q25, following increases of 1.9 million bpd from May through September.

Inventory growth is projected to continue into next year, averaging 2.1 million bpd.

The agency noted that the forecasted 4Q25 build is higher than last month’s estimate, as OPEC+ members increase production in line with the group’s recently expanded output targets.

U.S. crude oil production reached a record high in July at more than 13.6 million bpd, prompting the EIA to raise its outlook for domestic output. The agency now expects U.S. crude oil production to average 13.5 million bpd in both 2025 and 2026, compared with 13.4 million bpd and 13.3 million bpd, respectively, in last month’s forecast.

The October STEO also anticipates continued growth in U.S. crude inventories as refinery capacity declines in 2026 due to planned closures.

Total U.S. net imports of petroleum products are forecast to rise to 1.5 million bpd in 2026, up by 300,000 bpd from this year, while crude oil inventories are expected to continue building as production outpaces refinery inputs.

With crude prices easing, the EIA expects the U.S. retail gasoline price to average about $2.90 gallon in 2026, down from $3.10 gallon this year.

U.S. distillate inventories are projected to end 2025 at about 114 million barrels, which will likely keep refining margins for diesel elevated through 2026.