Hot Start to Week

General Overview: ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY, SHIFTING TO ARKANSAS AND SURROUNDING AREAS TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES BY TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.

EAST:  A wet pattern will dominate across the Northeast and Great Lakes regions over the next few days. Rain and thunderstorms will spread across much of the region Monday into Tuesday, with high pressure initially positioned off the Atlantic coast. By Tuesday, a low pressure system will develop near New York, bringing more organized precipitation to the Northeast. The coastal areas from the Mid-Atlantic up through New England will experience periods of rain, while the Great Lakes region will see scattered thunderstorm activity. As the week progresses, the frontal boundary will push eastward, with precipitation gradually diminishing by late week as high pressure builds in from the Atlantic. No severe weather is currently expected in this region, though locally heavy downpours are possible.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-4: Generally near to slightly above normal temperatures across most of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, with anomalies of 2-6°F above normal. The Great Lakes region will experience similar mild conditions.

-Days 5-8: Temperatures trending closer to seasonal norms across most of the East, with only slight positive anomalies remaining in parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

-Days 9-10: Near normal temperatures expected across most of the Eastern states, with any remaining warm anomalies diminishing.

CENTRAL:  The Central region will experience the most active and potentially dangerous weather over the next few days. A developing low pressure system in Kansas Monday will be the focal point for severe thunderstorms across portions of Kansas and Nebraska, where there is a risk for severe thunderstorms. By Tuesday, this system intensifies and shifts eastward, bringing a significant threat of heavy rain and flash flooding to Arkansas and surrounding areas. The severe weather threat also shifts eastward into Arkansas, where both severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will be possible. A cold front extending from this low will sweep through the region, bringing additional shower and thunderstorm activity. The Mississippi Valley will experience periods of rain as the system progresses eastward through midweek. By late week, conditions should gradually improve as the system moves out of the region.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-4: Temperatures generally 3-6°F above normal across much of the Central Plains and Midwest, with the warmest anomalies in the northern Plains.

-Days 5-8: Cooling trend begins as the frontal system moves through, bringing temperatures closer to seasonal norms across most of the region by days 7-8.

-Days 9-10: Near normal temperatures expected across most of the Central states, with only slight warm anomalies remaining in the northern Plains.

WEST:  The Western states will see a mixed pattern of precipitation and high pressure systems. The Pacific Northwest will experience periods of rain, particularly along the coastal areas. High pressure systems over the Rockies and parts of the Southwest will bring generally dry conditions to those areas. California will see scattered rain chances along the coast, while the interior Southwest remains mostly dry. By midweek, precipitation chances increase for parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern California as a frontal system approaches. The Intermountain West will see variable conditions with scattered showers possible in some mountain locations. 

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-4: Temperatures 3-6°F above normal across much of the Northwest and Northern Rockies, with isolated areas seeing anomalies up to 8°F above normal. Colorado and parts of the Southwest will see near normal temperatures with some slightly cooler than normal readings.

-Days 5-8: Continued above normal temperatures across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, with the warmest anomalies in Idaho, Montana, and Washington.

-Days 9-10: Warm anomalies persist but begin to moderate across the Northwest, with temperatures generally 2-4°F above normal.

TROPICAL: 
ATLANTIC BASIN: Hurricane Gabrielle is approximately 265 mi SE of Bermuda. Gabrielle is currently moving north, with a shift to the east-northeast expected over the next 24 hours. Hurricane Gabrielle is not expected to impact the United States.

EAST PACIFIC BASIN: Tropical Storm Narda is approximately 180 mi SSE of Zihuatenejo, Mexico. Narda is currently moving northwest, with a western shift expected Monday, likely continuing to track west through the week. Tropical Storm Narda is not expected to impact the United States.