ICE Canola Lower; Soybean, Corn Markets Higher; Wheat Mixed

MARKET SUMMARY:

November canola was down C$1.40. December corn closed up 3/4 of a cent and March corn was up 1 cent. November soybeans closed up 8 3/4 cents and January soybeans were up 8 1/4 cents. December KC wheat closed up 2 3/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 1 1/4 cents, December MIAX Minneapolis wheat was down 1 cent.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Canadian dollar closed up 0.001341 at $0.713490, and the U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.08 at 98.42. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 288.0 points at 46,448.0. December gold is down $47.70 at $4,256.90, December silver is down $2.68 at $50.62 and December copper is down $0.0025. November crude oil is up $0.13 at $57.59, November ultra-low sulfur diesel is up $0.0294, November RBOB gasoline is up $0.0257 and November natural gas is up $0.072.

OILSEEDS:

November soybeans closed up 8 3/4 cents at $10.19 1/2 and January soybeans were up 8 1/4 cents at $10.36 3/4. For the week, November soybeans closed up 12 3/4 cents and January soybeans were up 13 1/2 cents. December soybean oil was up 0.26 cent at 51.13 cents today, and December soybean meal was up $4.10 at $281.00.

“The soybean market once again rejected a move towards $10.00 early this week, and optimism has grown through the week, with back-and-forth accusations and comments in the U.S.-China trade war culminating with President Trump stating on Friday that he still plans to meet with President Xi of China at the end of this month. Thus far through the summer, the trade war has been largely kept in check by an extension of a ‘truce’ pending further negotiation, and this seems to be the likely result to look forward to out of the meeting at the end of the October,” said DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery. “However, how that will affect exports of soybeans remains to be seen. Currently, there is simply no economic reason for China to dive into the U.S. market as long as tariffs remain in place, the price is simply too high relative to competitors. However, should China need to bridge the gap between tightening Brazilian supplies and the next South American harvest, a removal of the 23% effective tariff rate would make U.S. soybeans a no brainer at currently almost a dollar per bushel lower than Brazilian offers, and $1.40 per bushel lower than domestic prices in China. The big question mark is how comfortable China is with pulling against state reserves. Time will tell.”

CANOLA:

November canola closed at $616.20, down $1.40, and the January contract closed down $1.20 at $630.30, closing lower with palm oil and rapeseed, while U.S. soybean oil was higher. As the canola harvest winds down, farmers are still slow to sell new crop right now.

The Sept. 30 Canadian Drought Monitor reported that “In September, drought conditions continued to deteriorate throughout much of Canada. As of September 30, a large majority of Canada was classified as Abnormally Dry or in drought with areas of each province and territory experiencing Extreme Drought (D3).” https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/agricultural-production/weather/canadian-drought-monitor/current-drought-conditions#a1

There were 17,728 November contracts traded and 30,007 January contracts traded.

ICE reported the following canola cash prices:

1 Canada NCC: CAD per MT

WHEAT:

December KC wheat closed up 2 3/4 cents at $4.91 1/2, December Chicago wheat was up 1 1/4 cents at $5.03 3/4, December MIAX Minneapolis wheat was down 1 cent at $5.48 1/2. For the week, December KC wheat closed up 8 1/2 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 5 1/4 cents and December Minneapolis wheat was down 3 1/4 cents.

The MIAX Futures Exchange, LLC Floor Trading Summary of spot milling spring wheat cash premiums closed as follows, basis the December MIAX spring wheat futures: 12% proteins was not quoted; 13% proteins are not quoted; 13.5 proteins were unchanged at +100N; 14 proteins were unchanged at +145N; 14.5% proteins were unchanged at +150; 15% proteins were up 30 at +280 and 16% proteins were not quoted. Wheat receipts on the exchange floor were 23 cars, which includes zero train(s). Bid (B), Ask (A), Nominal (N). Minneapolis Daily Spot Grain Prices are Delivered Chicago/Beyond freight.

CME December oats closed up 3 1/2 cents at $2.95, and March oats closed up 2 3/4 cents at $3.16 1/4. There were 161 September contracts traded, and 26 December contracts traded.

CORN:

December corn closed up 3/4 cents at $4.22 1/2 and March corn was up 1 cent at $4.36 1/2, closing higher again today with winter wheat and soybean markets. Not much was new for corn in the way of fresh news. Harvest continues and some farmers report lower yields than expected, but there is still plenty of corn in the U.S. to feed the export demand. For the week, December corn closed up 9 1/2 cents and March corn was up 7 1/2 cents.

“In world corn news, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimate corn planting in Argentina to be 30% complete as of this week, as plantings will begin to slow through the November gap between early and late planting windows,” said Montgomery. “The agency did note wet conditions in southern Argentina as slowing progress and pushing some acres out of the early plant window, something to keep in mind when we get to the growing season and pollination window.”

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow her on social platform X @MaryCKenn