MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News for September 24^th

Updated at 5:30 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

— AAR: Petroleum Carloads Fall 0.8% Week Ending Sept. 20

–Oil Price at 3-Week High as U.S. Crude Stocks Tumble

–EIA: Exports Draw Down Crude Oil, Product Inventories

–BTS: July North American Transborder Freight Down 1.1% Y-on-Y

–Dallas Fed: Executives See WTI at $63 in 2025 Amid Glut

–EIA: PADD 2 Distillate Stocks See 300Kb Build W-o-W

–EIA: PADD 3 Gasoline Stocks Falls 1.9M Bbl; Jet Climbs

–EIA: PADD 1 Distillate Inventories Dip 900Kb on Week

–EIA: West Coast Distillates Up 500Kb to 12.7M Bbl on Week

–EIA: Crude Stock Declined 600Kb, Distillates, Gasoline DN

–EIA: US Ethanol Output Down 3% W-o-W

–EIA Sees Multiyear Low In Distillate Stocks, Higher Prices

NEWS:

AAR: Petroleum Carloads Fall 0.8% Week Ending Sept. 20

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) data show petroleum and petroleum product carloads totaled 10,654 in the week ending September 20, down by 0.8% from the same week in 2024.

Year to date, petroleum and petroleum products carloads totaled 391,416, down by 1.1% from the corresponding period of the prior year, AAR reported this week.

AAR reports total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 510,677 carloads and intermodal units in the week profiled, down by 2.2% compared with the same week last year. Total carloads for the week-ended September 20 reached 228,609, down by 1.8% compared to the same week last year, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 282,068 containers and trailers, a 2.5% decrease from 2024.

For the first 38 weeks of 2025, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 8,423,372 carloads, up by 2.2% compared to the same period last year, and 10,289,962 intermodal units, up by 3.6% compared to last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 38 weeks of 2025 was 18,713,334 carloads and intermodal units, reflecting a 3.0% increase compared to last year.

EIA: Exports Draw Down Crude Oil, Product Inventories

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 600,000 bbl to 414.8 million bbl last week, according to Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday (9/24) that showed sockpiles slumping amid a blistering pace of exports.

Crude stockpiles rose 0.4% year-on-year for the week ended September 19, but fell 4% below the five-year seasonal average. 

Exports were at 4.484 million bpd for the reference week, down from the prior week’s 5.277 million bpd, when they hit a 21-month high. 

Still, exports were some 300,000 bpd higher than the average pace of the past four weeks.

Also, exports for the week ended September 19 were more than 200,000 bpd above year-ago levels, marking a 5.4% year-on-year increase.

On the cumulative daily average, however, crude oil exports continued to lag 2024 levels at 286,000 bpd, or 6.9%, year-on-year.

Combined exports of oil and products rose by more than 100,000 bpd on the week to a five-month high 11.662 million bpd. Total product exports bounced back from last week’s trough, spearheaded by a 705,000 bpd week-on-week rebound in distillate fuel oil exports to 1.556 million bpd.

Adding to the optimistic outlook for crude exports has been the widening Brent-WTI differential since early July, making U.S. prices more attractive. 

While the correlation between the Brent-WTI spread and the rate of U.S. exports has softened since WTI was included in the Brent benchmark, a larger discount may still entice international buyers in the weeks ahead.

BTS: July North American Transborder Freight Down 1.1% Y-on-Y

Total North American transborder freight moved by all modes of transportation fell 1.1% year-on-year in July to $132.6 billion, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics said Wednesday (9/24).

The decline was primarily in freight between the U.S. and Canada, which fell 8.2% from a year ago to $58.3 billion. U.S.-Mexico freight, however, rose 5.2% to $74.4 billion.

In terms of transportation mode, most forms of shipments used for moving freight registered declines, except for airplanes and trucks.

Vessels moved $8.8 billion of freight, down 15.6% from July 2024.

Pipelines carried $9 billion of freight, down 12.1% year-on-year.

Railways moved goods valued at $14.4 billion, down 10.1% from July 2024.

Airlines strongly bucked the overall lower trend, shipping 22.9% more freight than a year ago with a total value of $6.1 billion.

Trucks moved 0.6% more goods at $87.3 billion.

Dallas Fed: Executives See WTI at $63 in 2025 Amid Glut

Most executives from nearly 139 oil and gas firms expect the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price to end 2025 at $63 bbl, with the  range of estimates at $50 bbl to $80 bbl, amid concerns of global oil oversupply.

The 139 executives responding to the survey also projected an end-year price for Henry Hub natural gas at $3.30/MMBtu, below the $3.94/MMBtu average during the survey period, which ran from September 10 to September 18.

The oil and gas production index tracked by the survey declined slightly in the third quarter, the executives said.  The oil production index remained negative and was relatively unchanged at -8.6 while the natural gas production index was relatively unchanged at -3.2.

The company outlook index also fell, from -6.4 in the second quarter to -17.6, suggesting pessimism among the firms surveyed. 

Meanwhile, the outlook uncertainty index remained elevated, even as it edged lower from 47.1 to 44.6.

“There are a variety of issues affecting our business,” an executive told the survey. “First, excess in the global oil market is restraining oil prices near term. Second, there is continued uncertainty from OPEC+ unwinding production cuts. Third, trade and tariff changes and the resulting geopolitical tensions.”

Another lamented that the Trump administration’s desire for pricing under $50 bbl to keep in check inflation faced by American households caused by tariffs the administration itself had imposed on U.S. trading partners. 

“The administration is pushing for $40 per barrel crude oil, and with tariffs on foreign tubular goods, [input] prices are up, and drilling is going to disappear,” the executive added. “The oil industry is once again going to lose valuable employees.”

EIA: PADD 2 Distillate Stocks See 300Kb Build W-o-W

U.S. Midwest PADD 2 distillate, crude inventories increased, while gasoline and jet fuel stocks posted modest builds during the week ending September 19, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (9/24).

PADD 2 distillate inventories rose by 300,000 bbl to 30.9 million bbl in the profiled week, slightly above the 31.1 million bbl recorded in the same week of the previous year. The region imported zero distillates, unchanged from the prior week and in line with the same week last year.

PADD 2 gasoline stocks climbed by 900,000 bbl to 47.0 million bbl in the reference week, 1.2 million bbl above the comparable week of prior year. Gasoline imports held steady at 23,000 bpd, up from 13,000 bpd the prior week and versus 4,000 bpd in the same week last year.

Midwest jet fuel inventories rose  by 200,000 bbl to 7.9 million bbl in the respective week. That was 700,000 bbl above the volume reported in the corresponding week of last year. Regional jet fuel imports were zero, unchanged from the prior week and compared with zero imports in the same period of 2024.

Crude oil inventories in PADD 2 edged up by 200,000 bbl to 103.2 million bbl in the week ending September 19, compared with 102.4 million bbl reported during the same week of the prior year.

EIA: PADD 3 Gasoline Stocks Falls 1.9M Bbl; Jet Climbs

 U.S. Gulf Coast PADD 3 gasoline inventories declined for a second consecutive week in the week ending September 19, while distillate and crude oil stocks also dipped and jet fuel supplies increased, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (9/24).
USGC PADD 3 gasoline stocks fell week-on-week by 1.9 million bbl to 78.3 million bbl below the 81.2 million bbl reported in the same week of last year. Imports fell to zero from 45,000 bpd last week, compared with 19,000 bpd in the same week of last year.
PADD 3 distillate inventories fell by 1.8 million bbl to 45.2 million bbl in the week ending September 19, which is 4.9 million bbl higher than the 40.3 million bbl reported year-over-year. Imports rose slightly to 7,000 bpd from zero, the same level reported during the same period the prior year.
PADD 3 crude oil inventory fell by 7 million bbl to 234.3 million bbl from 241.3 million bbl in the reference week, marginally lower than the 234.5 million bbl reported in the same period of last year. Imports dropped to 1.043 million bpd week-on-week and were lower than 1.412 million bpd in the same week of last year.
Jet fuel stocks climbed by 400,000 bbl to 13.4 million bbl for the week,  600,000 bbl below the 14 million bbl reported year-over-year. The region continued reporting  jet fuel imports as it did the prior week and year-over- year.

EIA: PADD 1 Distillate Inventories Dip 900Kb on Week

East Coast PADD 1  distillate, gasoline and jet fuel inventories declined, while crude oil inventories posted a modest build during the week ending September 19, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (9/24).

PADD 1 distillate inventories fell by 900,000 bbl to 30.4 million bbl in the reference week, which is 6.3 million bbl lower than the volume recorded in the same week of the previous year. The region imported 244,000 bpd of distillates, down from 264,000 bpd the prior week, compared with 223,000 bpd in the same week of last year.

PADD 1 gasoline stocks slipped by 100,000 bbl to 54.5 million bbl in the profiled week, a 5.6 million bbl drop compared to last year. Gasoline imports climbed to 369,000 bpd, up from 346,000 bpd the prior week, though below the 604,000 bpd recorded in the same week last year.

East Coast jet fuel inventories eased by 100,000 bbl to 10.5 million bbl in the respective week. That was 1.3 million bbl below the volume reported in the corresponding week of last year. Regional jet fuel imports stood at 71,000 bpd, compared with 78,000 bpd week-over-week and 94,000 bpd in the same period of the previous year.

Crude oil inventories in PADD 1 rose by 600,000 bbl to 8.0 million bbl in the week ending September 19, compared with 8.1 million bbl reported during the same week of the prior year.

EIA: West Coast Distillates Up 500Kb to 12.7M Bbl on Week

West Coast PADD 5 product inventories showed mixed movement in the week ending September 19, with distillate and jet fuel supplies climbing while gasoline stocks held steady, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (9/24).

Gasoline inventories held flat at 30.0 million bbl in the reference week, equal to the prior week. Stocks were 3.6 million bbl higher than the 26.4 million bbl reported in the same week of 2024. Gasoline imports fell by 47,000 bpd to 115,000 bpd, compared with 116,000 bpd in 2024.

Distillate inventories climbed by 500,000 bbl to 12.7 million bbl from 12.2 million bbl in the respective week. Stocks were 1.4 million bbl higher than the 11.3 million bbl recorded in 2024. Imports eased to 5,000 bpd from 20,000 bpd and compared with 7,000 bpd last year.

Crude oil inventories climbed by 1.5 million bbl to 46.5 million bbl from 45.0 million bbl in the week ending September 19. That compared with 46.1 million bbl in the same week of 2024.

Jet fuel inventories climbed by 700,000 bbl to 12.4 million bbl from 11.7 million bbl in the respective week. Supplies were 1.0 million bbl above the 11.4 million bbl recorded in 2024. Imports rose sharply to 137,000 bpd from 54,000 bpd and compared with just 3,000 bpd in the same week of 2024.

EIA: Crude Stock Declined 600Kb, Distillates, Gasoline DN

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories edged lower in the week ending September 19 while gasoline supplies declined, and distillate fuel oil stocks registered their first draw in four weeks, the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday (9/24).

Commercial crude stocks decreased by 600,000 bbl to 414.8 million bbl, 1.7 million bbl above the volume reported during the same week last year. Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures, rose slightly by 100,000 bbl to 23.7 million bbl.

Distillate fuel oil inventories fell by 1.7 million bbl to 123 million bbl, essentially flat with last year’s level. The draw ended three consecutive weeks of builds, with most of the decline concentrated in low-sulfur barrels.

Motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.1 million bbl to 216.6 million bbl, 3.5 million bbl below the comparable week in 2024. Blending components slipped by 1 million bbl to 201.7 million bbl, while conventional gasoline stocks dipped by 100,000 bbl.

Refinery utilization stood at 93% of capacity, down slightly from 93.3% the prior week but higher than the 90.9% rate during the same period last year. Crude runs averaged 16.476 million bpd, up by 52,000 bpd week-on-week.

Crude exports averaged 4.484 million bpd, compared with 5.277 million bpd the previous week and 3.897 million bpd last year. Crude imports climbed by 803,000 bpd to 6.495 million bpd, near last year levels.

Total products supplied over the last four weeks averaged 20.466 million bpd, up by 190,000 bpd from the same period last year. Gasoline demand averaged 8.959 million bpd, up by 149,000 bpd from the prior week but 246,000 bpd below last year. Distillate demand averaged 3.738 million bpd, up by 116,000 bpd from the previous week but 284,000 bpd below the same week in 2024.

EIA: US Ethanol Output Down 3% W-o-W

The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that overall ethanol production in the United States averaged 1.024 million bpd, down 31,000 bpd week-on-week and 30,000 bpd, or 2.9% higher than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.097 million bpd was 51,000 bpd above the same four weeks last year.
Midwest ethanol production averaged 964,000 bpd, down 33,000 bpd week-on-week and 32,000 bpd, or 3.3% higher than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.038 million bpd was 53,000 bpd above the same four weeks last year.
Ethanol blending activity in the U.S. averaged 900,000 bpd, down 22,000 bpd week-on-week and in line with the same week last year. Four-week average blending demand at 913,000 bpd was 5,000 bpd above the same four weeks last year.
Blender inputs at the East Coast were up 2,000 bpd on the week while inputs in the Midwest were up 6,000 bpd, up 1,000 bpd on the Gulf Coast and down 30,000 bpd on the West Coast.
Domestic ethanol inventories ended the week at 23.468 million bbl, up 866,000 bbl week-on-week and 56,000 bbl, or 0.2% lower than in the same week last year.
East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 7.06 million bbl, up 206,000 bbl week-on-week and 259,000 bbl, or 3.7% lower than in the same week last year.
Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 9.433 million bbl, up 92,000 bbl week-on-week and 299,000 bbl, or 3.2% lower than in the same week last year.
Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 3.937 million bbl, up 433,000 bbl week-on-week and 84,000 bbl, or 2.1% higher than in the same week last year.
West Coast PADD 5 inventories ended the week at 2.656 million bbl, up 125,000 bbl week-on-week and 436,000 bbl, or 16.4% higher than in the same week last year.

EIA Sees Multiyear Low In Distillate Stocks, Higher Prices

U.S. distillate stockpiles are expected to end 2025 and 2026 at multiyear lows due to significant drawdowns, export demand and production issues, the Energy Information Administration said in a forecast Wednesday (9/24).

“Lower distillate inventories elevate the risk of higher prices and price volatility from supply disruptions, especially during periods of high demand like the autumn harvest and winter heating season,” the EIA stated in its September Short-Term Energy Outlook.

According to the EIA, U.S. distillate inventories have increased substantially, but remain relatively low to the seasonal trend of recent years. 

Distillate fuel oil includes both diesel fuel used in vehicles and home heating oil.

The EIA said sharp inventory drawdown in the first half of 2025 was a significant factor for the low inventory forecast.

U.S. total distillate inventories decreased by 17%, or about 22 million bbl, during the period, more than the average decrease of 10%, or 14 million bbl, over the same period of the four previous years.

The large inventory draw was a result of reduced supply of renewable diesel and biodiesel owing to lower production and lower net imports of those fuels. Less renewable diesel and biodiesel supply also resulted in more demand for petroleum-based distillate to fill the gap. 

As renewable diesel and biodiesel consumption decreased by 124,000 bpd, or 35%, in the first half 2025 year-over year, petroleum distillate fuel oil consumption rose 170,000 bpd, or 5%.

The EIA expects the drop in biofuels consumption for first-half 2025 to be a short-term departure from the longer-term trend of biofuels increasing as a share of distillate consumption. It expects renewable diesel and biodiesel consumption to partially recover in second-half 2025 to meet existing and future production mandates under the Renewable Fuel Standard . 

It also expects an increase in renewable diesel and biodiesel production to partially offset the increase in total distillate fuel oil consumption we forecast for 2026. 

That will result in essentially flat distillate fuel oil inventories between December 2025 and December 2026.