MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News for October 3

Updated at 5:10 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

— Tony Miller Appointed Texas Environment Quality Commissioner

— Filing: Chevron reports fire at El Segundo refinery

— BTS: U.S. Airline Jet Fuel Costs, Consumption Dip in Aug.

— Europe Turns to M. East, U.S. for Russian Diesel Shortfall

— Baker Hughes: US Oil Rig Count Flat on Wk, NatGas Rigs Up 1

— Analysis: OPEC Eyes Market Share at Risk of Oil Price Drop

— EIA: U.S.-Mexico Energy Trade Drops 21% to $57B Last Year

NEWS:

Tony Miller Appointed Texas Environment Quality Commissioner

Austin resident Tony Miller has been appointed Texas commissioner for environmental quality, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality said in a statement.
A former Texas Water Development Board member, Miller was picked for the new role by Texas governor Greg Abott and will hold the position until August 31, 2031, according to the statement released Thursday (10/2).

Filing: Chevron reports fire at El Segundo refinery

Chevron reported a fire Thursday night at approximately 9:30 PM PDT inside its 290,000 bpd El Segundo, California, refinery, according to a notice filed with the South Coast Air Quality Management District.

The company reported initially the incident as a flaring incident and stated the cause was unknown and under investigation, according to the filing.

“The fire at El Segundo Chevron Refinery has been contained and there is no public threat. There is still an active fire and road closures remain in place,” the company said in a statement published on the City of El Segundo’s community notification website.

Units affected by the fire were not disclosed.

BTS: U.S. Airline Jet Fuel Costs, Consumption Dip in Aug.

U.S. scheduled service airlines consumed 1.68 billion gallons of fuel in August, a 4.7% drop from July’s 1.76 billion gallons, according to data released Friday (10/3) by the Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS).

Total fuel expenditure by the airlines fell 6.4% month-over-month to $3.85 billion. This total spending was also 7.5% lower than the $4.16 billion spent in August 2024, BTS data showed.

U.S. scheduled service airlines average price paid $2.30 gallon for jet fuel in August, a 1.8% decline from the $2.34 recorded in July and a more substantial 7.1% drop from August 2024.

Jet fuel consumed by U.S. airlines in August totaled 1.08 billion gallons, 6.1% less than 1.14 billion gallons recorded the previous month.  Consumption fell by 1.8% year-over-year.

Year-over-year changes in fuel consumption and cost for August 2025 include a 0.34% drop in domestic fuel consumption, 12.84% decrease in domestic fuel cost, and 12.54% decrease in cost per gallon, according to BTS.

Europe Turns to M. East, U.S. for Russian Diesel Shortfall

Europe should cover diesel deficits caused this quarter by lower Russian exports with supplies from Middle East and U.S. PADD 3, as the market is expected to tighten too driven by higher seasonal demand, energy and freight intelligence service Vortexa said Friday (10/3).

“Refinery turnarounds in Europe and the Middle East are set to peak in October, with products supplied by these refineries likely returning to the market in the second half of Q4,” Vortexa’s market analyst Mick Strautmann said in a report.

“This will likely ease prompt tightness currently keeping European diesel cracks elevated y-o-y, and further alleviate concerns of any tightness going into January’s import ban.”

The ban imposed by the European Union on Russia-derived products adds uncertainty about supplies from India and Turkey to Europe. But even under strict enforcement, alternative supplies from the Middle East Gulf and PADD 3 should largely cover the deficit, according to the report.

Strautmann noted that Russian diesel and gasoil exports were tracking below seasonal averages, hitting  2017 lows in September.

This came at a time when Northwest Europe and U.S. PADD  markets typically saw import demand rise by about 10% and 25% quarter-on-quarter, respectively, requiring immediate restocking.

With fewer inflows, Turkey’s diesel/gasoil exports to Europe have dropped by 50% month-on-month in September and are likely to stay pressured while Russia supply is tight.

The return of refinery products after the peak October maintenance period is also expected to ease any market prompt tightness by late Q4, alleviating concerns ahead of the January ban on Russian oil.

Baker Hughes: US Oil Rig Count Flat on Wk, NatGas Rigs Up 1

The number of rigs in the United States drilling for oil were unchanged in the current week, remaining at 549 as of Friday (10/3), latest Baker Hughes data showed.

Versus a year ago, the oil rig count is down 36, rising slightly from the 38-rig deficit reported the week prior.

Baker Hughes reports that the number of U.S. natural gas rigs in operation rose by one to 118 for the week, while staying 16 above the count for the same week in 2024.

In Canada, the data show number of oil rigs in operation stood at129, also unchanged from the week prior. Year-on-year, the Canadian oil rig count was off by 28.

Canada’s natural gas rig count was flat too at 60 on the week, and three lower on the year.

Analysis: OPEC Eyes Market Share at Risk of Oil Price Drop

After years of cutting production in an uphill battle against softening oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners, colloquially known as OPEC+, is raising output to win market share.

The group, which has 22 member nations in all and controls more than 40% of global crude oil supply, pivoted to its new strategy in spring this year, citing strong oil demand as its justification.

This is despite the risk of lower oil prices that such an about-face could bring. A weak oil market has historically been an anathema to OPEC. Just this week, benchmark U.S. crude fell to a four-month low of $60.42 bbl.

The International Energy Agency, meanwhile, has a different outlook on oil supply. The IEA, which represents the interests of 31 oil-consuming countries, had already forecast a record oil glut for 2026 before OPEC’s shift in strategy became fully apparent.

On Sunday (10/5), eight of the largest oil producing nations in OPEC+ will be convening virtually to set production policy for November.

Market observers are anticipating a larger production quota hike than that set for October. While actual barrels added to the global market matter more than production targets on paper, OPEC’s oil output increases have over the past few months inched closer to meeting targeted volumes.

OPEC continued to ramp up output even after the group of eight had fully unwound a voluntary 2.2 million bpd production curtailment in addition to the existing OPEC+ framework.

According to last month’s OPEC oil market report based on secondary sources, combined crude oil production from the 22 member countries constituting OPEC+ jumped 509,000 bpd in August to 42.4 million bpd.

The group of eight itself raised output by 551,000 bpd month-on-month, meeting the 548,000-bpd target.

Other forecasting agencies like the IEA estimate de facto output increases to even have overshot their target.

Early data indicate that OPEC+’s production growth in September slowed compared to August. A Reuters survey pegged last month’s supply additions to 347,000 bpd, falling slightly short of the aimed increase of 415,000-bpd.

Extra compensatory cut obligations by some members who have overproduced in the past are likely to somewhat limit de facto supply hikes.

In addition, rapidly dwindling spare production capacity, while still sufficient for now, may in the future also exert a moderating effect.

Given the recent return of some 180,000 bpd of Iraqi crude oil to the market, the group’s production hike this month is likely to surpass the comparatively modest target of 137,000 bpd.

In September, the IEA once again raised oversupply expectations for this year and next, leading the agency to forecast global oil inventories to grow by an average of 2.5 million bpd in the second half of 2025.

This was prior to the comeback of Kurdish barrels and to the group of eight going beyond the initially aimed increase of 2.2 million bpd increase, both factors which are set to exacerbate oil inventory growth in the coming months.

A consensus of analyses suggests the oil market will likely be oversupplied through 2026 — bar major geopolitical escalations that could severely threaten global supply. The squeezes on supply could come from major sanctions crippling Russian flows, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a major war in the Arab Gulf that could cripple crude shipments out of the region.

As China slows oil purchases for its brimming strategic reserves, unneeded barrels are likely to show up in greater numbers in more data-transparent OECD markets like the U.S. and Europe.

 EIA: U.S.-Mexico Energy Trade Drops 21% to $57B Last Year

The value of the U.S.-Mexico energy trade fell to an estimated $57 billion in 2024, down 21% from the prior year and the lowest since 2020, the Energy Information Administration reported Friday (10/3).

The drop was primarily driven by a combination of lower global fuel prices and reduced petroleum output from Mexico. This affected the refined products which make up the largest share of cross-border energy transactions, the EIA said.

Using data sourced from the Census Bureau, the agency said much of the 2024 value constituted U.S. refined petroleum product exports totaling $37 billion.

The inflation-adjusted value of all U.S. energy exports to Mexico fell by 13% last year, settling at $41 billion. While it marked a second straight annual decline, the drop was less severe than the 24% decrease between 2022 and 2023, signaling a moderation in the decline.

The inflation-adjusted value of U.S. energy imports from Mexico, meanwhile, plunged by 34% to $16 billion.  This was primarily caused by lower crude oil imports, which accounted for 75% of all U.S. energy imports from Mexico during the year.

U.S. crude oil imports from Mexico averaged 464,000 bpd last year, a 37% decrease from the prior, bringing the value of those purchases down 40% from 2023.

The volume of U.S. petroleum product exports to Mexico remained essentially flat at 1.2 million bpd in 2024, decreasing by $4 billion in value to $37 billion.

U.S. natural gas exports to Mexico, primarily via pipeline, increased by 4% to an average of 6.4 bcfd, contributing to the record total U.S. global exports of 21 bcfd. But lower natural gas prices brought the value of the gas trade with Mexico down 31% to $4.2 billion.

Gas shipments to Mexico have continued to accelerate this year, reaching 6.6 bcfd in the first six months, the EIA noted. This increase was attributed to planned North American LNG expansion projects that will utilize U.S.-sourced gas.