MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News for October 8^th

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

–AAR: Petroleum Carloads Fall 2.5% Week Ending Oct. 4

–WTI at 1-Wk High Near $63, Overlooks U.S. Crude Build

–Fed: Majority of Policymakers Favor More 2025 Rate Cuts

–EIA: PADD 5 Gasoline Stocks Fall 700Kb to 29.6M Bbl

–EIA: USGC Crude Stocks Up 6.2M Bbl; Gasoline Stocks Dip

–EIA: PADD 2 Distillate Stocks Fall 1Mb W-o-W

–EIA: PADD 1 Gasoline Stocks Fall 1.1Mb, Distillates Down

–EIA: U.S. Crude Stock Up 3.7Mb, Gasoline, Distillates Down

–EIA: Propane/Propylene Stocks Down 2.8% W/W

–EIA: US Ethanol Output Up 7.6% W/W

NEWS:

AAR: Petroleum Carloads Fall 2.5% Week Ending Oct. 4

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) data show petroleum and petroleum product carloads totaled 10,538 in the week ending October 4, down by 2.5% from the same week in 2024.

Year to date, petroleum and petroleum products carloads totaled 412,297, down by 1.2% from the corresponding period of the prior year, AAR reported on Wednesday (10/8).

AAR reports that total U.S. weekly rail traffic rose instead year-on-year – reaching 503,538 carloads and intermodal units in the week profiled, or 3.6% higher from the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week-ended October 4 was 224,972 — unchanged from the corresponding week of 2024.

U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 278,566 containers and trailers, a 6.7% increase from last year.

For the first 40 weeks of 2025, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 8,877,247 carloads, up by 2.1% from the year-ago period, and 10,852,267 intermodal units, higher by 3.6% year-on-year.

Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 40 weeks of 2025 was 19,729,514 carloads and intermodal units, reflecting a 2.9% increase compared to last year.

WTI at 1-Wk High Near $63, Overlooks U.S. Crude Build

The rebound in oil prices extended to a fifth straight day Wednesday (10/8) as market participants shrugged off U.S. EIA data showing a second consecutive weekly build in crude stocks, focusing instead on the demand for fuel.

In crude oil futures, NYMEX-traded WTI for November delivery rose $0.82 to $62.55 bbl, hitting a one-week high at $62.92 bbl.

ICE Brent crude for December delivery was up $0.86 at $66.31 bbl, after a one-week peak at $66.54 bbl.

Both crude benchmarks hit four-month lows last week, with WTI falling to $60.40 bbl and Brent to $64 bbl.

Downstream, November RBOB gasoline futures increased $0.0167 to $1.9106 gallon, while front-month ULSD futures rose $0.0288 to $2.2941 gallon.

The rally in oil and other commodities came despite the U.S. Dollar Index rising 0.451 points to 98.735, reaching an August high against a basket of foreign currencies.

Specifically, the 4% recovery in WTI and Brent pricing from last week’s lows was partly triggered by opinion among some in the market that crude prices had overreacted to fears of a supply glut.

The oversupply concerns had been exacerbated by back-to-back OPEC+ production hikes for October and November, and the return of 200,000 bpd or more of Kurdish oil previously suspended from export markets since 2023.

The oil market comeback gathered momentum after the Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday declines in U.S. gasoline and distillate fuel oil stocks for the week ended October 3, even commercial crude oil inventories increased.

Distillate fuel oil inventories posted the largest decline among the major products, falling by 2 million bbl to 121.6 million bbl, reversing last week’s modest build, EIA data showed.

Total motor gasoline inventories also fell, dropping by 1.6 million bbl to 219.1 million bbl, after a build the prior week.

Commercial crude stocks, meanwhile, rose by 3.7 million bbl to 420.3 million bbl for the week ended October 3, extending the prior week’s build of 1.8 million bbl. The increases are closing the gap with 2024 inventories, with total U.S. crude stocks now about 2.4 million bbl below year-ago levels.

Despite that, crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, fell by 800,000 bbl to 22.7 million bbl, marking a second straight weekly draw.

Fed: Majority of Policymakers Favor More 2025 Rate Cuts

Most policymakers on the Federal Reserve are leaning towards further monetary easing this year, after September’s first rate cut in nine months, the central bank said in minutes published on Wednesday (10/8) of its latest policy meeting.

“Most judged that it likely would be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of this year,” the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the rates-setting panel of the central bank, said in the minutes of its September 17 meeting.  “The vast majority of survey respondents expected at least two 25 basis point cuts by year-end.”

The Fed, as it’s called, has two more decisions to make on rates at meetings scheduled for October 29 and December 10.

The FOMC dropped the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, or a quarter percentage point, at its September meeting, setting a new range of 4%-4.25% for the interest that banks charge each other on short-term loans and which also determines the rate Americans pay on their borrowings.

Since then, markets have been parsing all Fed statements, particularly remarks made by the various FOMC officials, for clues on whether September’s rate cut will extend through December.

Fed officials, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, typically engage in a tug-of-war with its dual mandate of keeping prices stable while creating maximum employment opportunity for Americans.

That was underscored by the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday, which noted that “inflation would be somewhat elevated in the near term” while “labor market conditions would be little changed” even under appropriate monetary policy.

U.S. inflation is currently at its highest point since January and has been consistently above the Fed’s 2% target for nearly five years now.

Jobs growth has, meanwhile, weakened, falling to levels not seen since 2021. A government shutdown since October 1 caused by a dispute over Congressional funding is also putting at risk wages and employment of federal workers, who total some 3 million.

The conflicting data has split FOMC officials on the best action forward. Some, like Supervision Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Stephen Miran, have advocated for continuous rate cuts. Others, like St. Louis and Kansas City Fed Presidents Alberto Musalem and Jeffrey Schmid, have urged more caution.

EIA: PADD 5 Gasoline Stocks Fall 700Kb to 29.6M Bbl

West Coast PADD 5 gasoline inventories declined for a second consecutive week through October 3, while distillate, crude oil, and jet fuel stocks also reported a draw, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (10/8).
Gasoline inventories fell by 700,000 bbl to 29.6 million bbl in the week ending October 3, and were 2.8 million bbl higher than the 26.8 million bbl reported in the same week of last year. Imports in the same regiion climbed by 30,000 bpd to 123,000 bpd d and were above 8,000 bpd imported year-over- year.
Distillate inventories declined by 400,000 bbl to 12.5 million bbl in the reference week, but were 1.8 million bpd above the 10.7 million bbl recorded in the same period of the prior year.  Imports rose by 35,000 bpd to 58,000  bpd,  significantly higher than 4,000 bpd  reported in the same week last year. Crude oil inventories dropped by 800,000 bbl to 46 million bbl in the week ending October 3. Supplies were marginally lower than the 46.7 million bbl held in the same week of prior year.
Jet fuel inventories edged down by 400,000 bbl to 12 million bbl in the reference week but were 1.8 million bbl higher than the 10.2 million bbl reported year-on-year. Imports increased week-over-week by 46,000 bpd to 87,000 bpd, also higher than 47,000 bpd reported year-over-year.

EIA: USGC Crude Stocks Up 6.2M Bbl; Gasoline Stocks Dip

Gulf Coast PADD 3 crude oil inventories climbed sharply in the week ending October 3, while gasoline and distillate stocks edged lower and jet fuel inventories increased, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (10/8). Gulf Coast PADD 3 gasoline stocks fell by 100,000 bbl to 79.7 million bbl from 79.8 million bbl the week prior, 3 million bbl above the 76.9 million bbl reported during the same week last year. Gasoline imports fell to 3,000 bpd from 33,000 bpd, below the 16,000 bpd brought in during the previous year.
Distillate inventories fell by 100,000 bbl to 44.8 million bbl from 44.9 million bbl in the week ending October 3. Supplies were 3.8 million bbl higher than the 41.0 million bbl recorded in the same week the prior year. The region recorded no distillate imports for the week, unchanged from both the previous week and the same period last year.
Crude oil inventories climbed by 6.2 million bbl to 244.5 million bbl from 238.3 million bbl in the reference week, 4.6 million bbl above the 239.9 million bbl recorded last year. Crude imports rose to 1.240 million bpd from 805,000 bpd and were nearly unchanged from 1.234 million bpd a year earlier.
Jet fuel inventories climbed by 400,000 bbl to 14.5 million bbl from 14.1 million bbl in the week ending October 3, 400,000 bbl lower than the 14.9 million bbl reported in the previous year. Jet imports fell to zero from 24,000 bpd the prior week, flat compared to the same week last year.

EIA: PADD 2 Distillate Stocks Fall 1Mb W-o-W

U.S. Midwest PADD 2 distillate inventories declined, along with stocks of gasoline, crude oil and jet fuel, during the week ending October 3, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (10/8).

PADD 2 distillate inventories fell by 1 million bbl to 30.4 million bbl in the profiled week, slightly above the 30 million bbl recorded in the same week of the previous year. The region imported 8,000 bpd of distillates, unchanged from the prior week and compared with 7,000 bpd in the same week last year.

PADD 2 gasoline stocks slipped by 100,000 bbl to 47.4 million bbl in the reference week, 2.4 million bbl above the comparable week of prior year. Gasoline imports were 18,000 bpd, up from 16,000 bpd the prior week and versus 5,000 bpd in the same week last year.

Midwest jet fuel inventories declined by 200,000 bbl to 7.6 million bbl in the respective week. That was 1.2 million bbl above the volume reported in the corresponding week of last year. Regional jet fuel imports were zero, unchanged from the prior week and compared with zero imports in the same period last year.

Crude oil inventories in PADD 2 fell by 900,000 bbl to 100.7 million bbl in the week ending October 3, compared with 106.2 million bbl reported during the same week of the prior year.

EIA: PADD 1 Gasoline Stocks Fall 1.1Mb, Distillates Down

East Coast PADD 1 gasoline and distillate inventories declined, while jet fuel supplies rose slightly and crude oil inventories fell during the week ending October 3, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (10/8).

PADD 1 gasoline stocks declined by 1.1 million bbl to 55 million bbl in the profiled week, a 4.7 million bbl drop compared to the previous year. Gasoline imports fell to 483,000 bpd, down from 526,000 bpd the prior week, though above the 393,000 bpd recorded in the same week last year.

PADD 1 distillate inventories fell by 500,000 bbl to 30.2 million bbl in the reference week, which is 3.4 million bbl lower than the volume recorded in the same week of the previous year. The region imported 56,000 bpd of distillates, down from 78,000 bpd the prior week, compared with 84,000 bpd in the same week last year.

East Coast jet fuel inventories rose by 100,000 bbl to 9.3 million bbl in the respective week. That was 2.6 million bbl below the volume reported in the corresponding week of last year. Regional jet fuel imports stood at zero bpd, unchanged from the prior week and matching the same period of the previous year.

Crude oil inventories in PADD 1 fell by 300,000 bbl to 6.7 million bbl in the week ending October 3, compared with 7.8 million bbl reported during the same week of the prior year

EIA: U.S. Crude Stock Up 3.7Mb, Gasoline, Distillates Down

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased for the second consecutive week in the period ending October 3, while gasoline and distillate fuel oil stocks both declined, the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday (10/8).

Commercial crude stocks rose by 3.7 million bbl to 420.3 million bbl, extending last week’s 1.8 million bbl build. Inventories now sit about 2.4 million bbl below levels a year earlier.

Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures, fell by 800,000 bbl to 22.7 million bbl, marking a second straight draw.

Blending components decreased by 2 million bbl to 203.4 million bbl, while conventional gasoline stocks increased by 400,000 bbl to 15.7 million bbl.

Distillate fuel oil inventories posted the largest decline among the major products, falliby 2 million bbl to 121.6 million bbl, reversing last week’s modest build. Despite the draw, inventories remain about 3.1 million bbl higher than the same period last year, with most of the decrease occurring in low-sulfur grades.

Total motor gasoline inventories fell by 1.6 million bbl to 219.1 million bbl, following a build the previous week. Blending components accounted for the bulk of the drop, offset slightly by gains in conventional gasoline.

Refinery utilization in the East Coast rose to 92.4% of capacity, up from 91.4% the prior week and above 86.7% in the prior year. Crude runs averaged 16.297 million bpd, an increase of 130,000 bpd week-on-week.

Crude exports averaged 3.590 million bpd, down from 3.751 million bpd the previous week and 3.794 million bpd the previous year. Crude imports climbed by 570,000 bpd to 6.403 million bbl, marking the second consecutive weekly increase.

Total products supplied over the last four weeks averaged 20.897 million bpd, up 1.7% from the same period last year. Gasoline demand averaged 8.919 million bpd, holding near 2024 levels, while distillate demand increased to 4.346 million bpd, slightly above last year’s pace.

EIA: Propane/Propylene Stocks Down 2.8% W/W

The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday total domestic propane/propylene stocks of 100.501 million bbl in the week ending October 3, down 2.875 million bbl week-on-week and 732,000 bbl, or 0.7% higher than in the same week last year.
Data show propane/propylene exports last week averaged 1.885 million bpd, down 121,000 bpd week-on-week and 343,000 bpd, or 18.2%, higher than in the same week last year.
Implied demand for propane/propylene in the United States averaged 1.474 million bpd, up 940,000 bpd week-on-week and 478,000 bpd, or 32.4% higher than in the same week last year.
EIA reports domestic propane/propylene production averaged 2.862 million bpd, down 39,000 bpd week-on-week and 161,000 bpd, or 5.6% higher than in the same week last year.
East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 8.038 million bbl, down 1.009 million bbl week-on-week and 690,000 bbl, or 8.6% higher than in the same week last year.
Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 26.82 million bbl, down 503,000 bbl week-on-week and 1.466 million bbl, or 5.5% lower than in the same week last year.
Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 60.16 million bbl, down 1.281 million bbl week-on-week and 2.058 million bbl, or 3.4% higher than in the same week last year.
Combined inventories in the Rockies and the West Coast, PADD 4 and 5, ended the week at 5.482 million bbl, down 83,000 bbl week-on-week and 551,000 bbl, or 10.1% lower than in the same week last year.

EIA: US Ethanol Output Up 7.6% W/W

The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that overall ethanol production in the United States averaged 1.071 million bpd, up 76,000 bpd week-on-week and 33,000 bpd, or 3.1% higher than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.036 million bpd was 12,000 bpd above the same four weeks last year.
Midwest ethanol production averaged 1.025 million bpd, up 85,000 bpd week-on-week and 46,000 bpd, or 4.5% higher than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 981,000 bpd was 16,000 bpd above the same four weeks last year.
Ethanol blending activity in the U.S. averaged 892,000 bpd, down 13,000 bpd week-on-week and 20,000 bpd, or 2.2% lower than in the same week last year. Four-week average blending demand at 905,000 bpd was 2,000 bpd below the same four weeks last year.
Blender inputs at the East Coast were down 1,000 bpd on the week while inputs in the Midwest were down 4,000 bpd, down 6,000 bpd on the Gulf Coast and down 1,000 bpd on the West Coast.
Domestic ethanol inventories ended the week at 22.72 million bbl, down 44,000 bbl week-on-week and 566,000 bbl, or 2.5% higher than in the same week last year.
East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 6.601 million bbl, down 179,000 bbl week-on-week and 443,000 bbl, or 6.7% lower than in the same week last year.
Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 9.135 million bbl, down 17,000 bbl week-on-week and 141,000 bbl, or 1.5% higher than in the same week last year.
Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 3.903 million bbl, down 138,000 bbl week-on-week and 305,000 bbl, or 7.8% higher than in the same week last year.
West Coast PADD 5 inventories ended the week at 2.721 million bbl, up 308,000 bbl week-on-week and 562,000 bbl, or 20.7% higher than in the same week last year.