MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News for October 10^th

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

— EIA: Natural Gas Loses Heating Fuel Market Share to Power

— Midwest CBOB Basis Extends Decline, Hits 2025 Lows

— WTI Sinks on Trump’s New Tariff Threat Against China

— Baker Hughes: North America Rig Count Down by 2 W-o-W

— EIA to Publish WPSR on Oct. 16 Due to Columbus Holiday

— University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment Hits 5-Month Low

NEWS:

EIA: Natural Gas Loses Heating Fuel Market Share to Power

Natural gas remained the most common heating fuel used by U.S. households in 2024, but is losing market share against electricity, reflecting shifts in housing populations, technology and policies, the Energy Information Administration said on Friday (10/10)

Last year, natural gas was used by only 47% of U.S. households, a drop from 49% in 2010. In contrast, electricity’s usage surged becoming the main space heating source for 42% of U.S. homes last year – up sharply from 35% in 2010.

The shift toward electricity has been fueled by a continuing population move toward warmer states in the South and West, where electric heating is more common.

While natural gas faces pressure, other conventional heating fuels appear to be holding steady or growing. The data reveals that the overall shift is not a simple trade of gas for electricity; it also shows stable consumption of propane with a 5% market share and declining heating oil use, which dropped to 4% from 6% in the reference period..

This nuanced picture reflects evolving regional fuel choices and technology adoption. Older homes in the Northeast and Midwest continue to rely on heating oil and propane, particularly in the coldest regions of the country, where they remain more common than electric options.

Midwest CBOB Basis Extends Decline, Hits 2025 Lows

Chicago CBOB basis extended losses Friday (10/10) against November RBOB futures, hitting the lowest point of 2025, with similar trends seen across the rest of the Midwest pipeline delivery points, reflecting comparable weakness across regional pipelines.

Chicago barrels were assessed at a 29cts discount to November RBOB futures, compared with a 4.50cts discount during the prior year — a 24.50cts year-over-year decline and a 37.5cts swing from the summer peak of an 18.50cts premium on August 25, DTN Energy data showed

“Usually, as we exit peak gasoline season, downtrends like this are expected. However, this year’s decline has been sharper than usual,” a trader said. “Gasoline demand was weaker than expected — with hybrid and more fuel-efficient cars putting additional pressure on consumption.”

According to the Federal Highway Administration, 2025 is trending toward becoming the most traveled year on record for vehicle miles traveled (VMT), driven by a record-setting July at 296 billion miles, a 1.7% increase from July of the previous year. August 2025 also posted 294.2 billion miles, up 1.1% from the prior August.

Despite the increase in driving across the U.S., storage levels in the Midwest (PADD 2) remain comfortable, reinforcing the softer gasoline demand. Latest EIA data for the week ending October 3 show inventories at 47.45 million bbl, roughly 2.4 million bbl higher than the same week the previous year, indicating that higher vehicle miles haven’t translated into stronger fuel drawdowns.

Another market source familiar with the market noted that Midwest gasoline prices underperformed compared to previous summers, suggesting a soft backdrop as the market heads into what has historically been the low-demand season from October through March.

WTI Sinks on Trump’s New Tariff Threat Against China

 Crude futures hit five-month lows on Friday (10/10) after  U.S. President Donald Trump threatened a “massive increase” in tariffs on China as the Chinese government restricted rare-earth exports.  

So far this year, the Trump administration has levied punitive trade tariffs averaging over 50% on Chinese imports, while China has responded with retaliatory tariffs averaging just over 30% on U.S. imported goods. China is the world’s second- largest oil buyer.

“One of the Policies that we are calculating at this moment is a massive increase of Tariffs on Chinese products coming into the United States of America,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

The announcement sent the NYMEX WTI futures contract below the key $60 bb psychological support. The U.S. oil benchmark for November delivery closed down $2.61 at $58.90 bbl, after an intraday low at $58.70 -– a bottom not seen since May 8. The more than 4% drop on the day was also the sharpest since June.

 ICE Brent for December delivery dropped $2.54 to $62.68 bbl after a five-month low at $62.52.

Downstream, November RBOB gasoline futures declined $0.0637 to $1.8189 gallon, and front-month ULSD futures slumped $0.0779 to $2.2024 gallon.

The Dollar Index, which typically moves opposite to commodities, also was down 0.550 to 98.735.

Baker Hughes: North America Rig Count Down by 2 W-o-W

North American drilling activity increased as of today, with rigs added in both the U.S. and Canada, according to Baker Hughes data released Friday (10/10).

The total number of rigs operating in the United States fell by two to 547, and down by 39 from the same week last year.

Oil-directed rigs fell by four to 418, while gas rigs rose by two to 120 week-over-week. Miscellaneous rigs were unchanged at nine.

Land-based drilling declined by two rigs to reach 529 as of today. Offshore activity was unchanged at 15, and inland waters at three rigs were steady as well during the same period. The Gulf of Mexico rig count was flat too, at 10.

Canada’s total rig count increased by three to 193, with oil-directed rigs flat at 129 and gas rigs rising by three to 63. Despite the gain. The total for that region remained 26 rigs below last year’s levels.

EIA to Publish WPSR on Oct. 16 Due to Columbus Holiday

The Energy Information Administration will delay publishing by a day its Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) and two other reports due to next week’s Columbus Day federal holiday, the agency announced Friday (10/10).

The WPSR along with the “This Week in Petroleum” and “Heating Oil and Propane Update” reports – typically published on a Wednesday- will be published on Thursday October 16, because of the holiday on October 13, the EIA stated.

University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment Hits 5-Month Low

U.S. consumer sentiment in October was little changed from last month, with the Index of Consumer Sentiment dropping to a five-month low 55.0, compared to September’s reading of 55.1, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers released this morning. Year-over-year, the index was down 14.5 points, or 22%.

The Index of Consumer Expectations, which reflects the economic outlook over the next 12 months, fell by 0.5 points to 51.2, a 1% decrease from September and down 30.9% compared to the same month last year. 

The Current Economic Conditions Index, measuring sentiment about personal finances and buying conditions, rose to 61.0 in October, 0.6 points, or 1%, above the level reported in September, but down 6% year-over-year. 

“Improvements this month in current personal finances and year-ahead business conditions were offset by declines in expectations for future personal finances as well as current buying conditions for durables,” said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.

“Pocketbook issues like high prices and weakening job prospects remain at the forefront of consumers’ minds. At this time, consumers do not expect meaningful improvement in these factors,” Hsu continued.