MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News for September 9^th

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

— API: Crude, Gasoline, Distillate Stocks All Rise

— EIA-STEO Eyes Brent at $59.41 in 4Q25 on Inventory Build

— EIA Revises Henry Hub Spot Price Down 10% from Aug. STEO

— EIA: USGC Diesel Prices Rise by 3.7cts on Week

— EIA: US Gasoline Rises; Central Atlantic Jumps 7.4cts

NEWS:

The American Petroleum Institute on Wednesday reported a build in U.S. crude and distillate fuel inventories for the week ended September 5, while gasoline stocks saw a modest increase.

API reported U.S. commercial crude oil supply rose by 1.250 million bbl, while inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures, increased by 2.063 million bbl.
Gasoline inventories rose by 0.329 million bbl, marking a slight rebound after previous declines, while distillate fuel stocks increased 1.500 million bbl for the week.

EIA-STEO Eyes Brent at $59.41 in 4Q25 on Inventory Build

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) expects the Brent crude oil price to fall to an average of $59.41 bbl in the fourth quarter of this year from $68 bbl estimated in August. The 4Q25 price would be $9 bbl lower than the previous year and $1.36 bbl above the August STEO forecast of $58.05 bbl.

The downward revision follows OPEC+ members’ decision to increase production, which is expected to contribute to global oil inventory builds averaging more than 2 million bpd from 3Q25 through 1Q26, according to the EIA-STEO report. The agency notes that its forecast for 4Q25 builds is 0.8 million bpd higher than projected last month.

The EIA also projects U.S. crude oil production will reach a record high of nearly 13.6 million bpd in December 2025, before easing to about 13.3 million bpd by the end of 2026, as lower prices reduce drilling and well completion activity.

On an annual basis, EIA forecasts production will average 13.4 million bpd in 2025 and 13.3 million bpd in 2026, both slightly higher than last month’s outlook.

The September STEO also revised its forecast for U.S. crude oil inventories higher, with 2025 ending stocks now projected at 439.5 million bbl, up from 433.3 million bbl in last month’s STEO. Inventories are expected to climb further to 452.4 million bbl by the end of 2026, above the prior forecast of 447.5 million bbl.

The EIA anticipates lower crude oil prices to contribute to a decline in U.S. retail gasoline prices, with the nationwide average projected at about $2.86 gallon in 2026, roughly 20cts gallon lower than this year. However, U.S. distillate inventories are forecast to end 2025 at about 114 million bbl, which will likely keep refining margins for diesel elevated through 2026.

EIA Revises Henry Hub Spot Price Down 10% from Aug. STEO

The Energy Information Administration lowered its natural gas price forecast on expectations that high inventories and reduced electric power demand will keep pressure on U.S. benchmark prices heading into winter, according to its Short-Term Energy Outlook report released on Tuesday (9/9).
The Henry Hub spot price, which averaged $2.91 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in August, is now forecast to average about $3.00/MMBtu in the third quarter, down 10% from the August STEO estimate.
U.S. natural gas inventories ended August 6% above the five-year average after robust production and lower LNG exports supported injections, according to the monthly report. By March 2026, storage levels are expected to hold about 1% above the five-year average.
“Our lower price forecast reflects higher storage levels this summer and reduced consumption in the power sector,” according to the report. “We expect inventories will be withdrawn at faster-than-normal rates this winter, putting upward pressure on prices into early 2026, ” the EIA-STEO report stated.
The EIA projects the Henry Hub price will climb towardS $4.60/MMBtu in the first quarter of 2026 as inventories are drawn down, before averaging $3.60/MMBtu for the year. By 2026, EIA expects natural gas prices to nearly double compared with 2024, even as West Texas Intermediate crude prices decline by 38% in the same period.
U.S. marketed natural gas production is forecast to average 117.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025 before easing slightly to 116.8 Bcf/d in 2026. LNG exports are expected to increase by 4.3 Bcf/d from 2024 to 2026, supported by new projects including Golden Pass and Plaquemines LNG, keeping the U.S. positioned as the world’s top exporter.

EIA: USGC Diesel Prices Rise by 3.7cts on Week

The national average price for retail diesel fuel increased for the second consecutive week as of Monday (9/8), with the steepest advance once again on the US Gulf Coast, according to the latest data from the Energy Information Administration.

The national average for retail diesel fuel climbed by 3.2cts to $3.766 gallon as of Monday, 21.1cts above the same week last year.

Gulf Coast PADD 3 posted the sharpest regional gain for the third consecutive week, up by 3.7cts to $3.404 gallon as of September 8, 21.4cts above the same period of the previous year.

Midwest PADD 2 diesel price advanced by 3.2cts to $3.754 gallon week-over-week, 22.6cts higher than the same time of the prior year.

West Coast PADD 5 diesel prices also moved higher, rising by 4.9cts to $4.533 gallon as of Monday, 27.6cts above the same period of the prior year. Meanwhile, West Coast less California jumped by 5.1cts to $4.163 gallon, up by 32.6cts from the same week last year.

California advanced by 4.4cts to $4.958 gallon, 21.9cts higher compared to last year.

The East Coast PADD 1 average diesel price gained by 2.2cts to $3.772 gallon as of September 8, 15.3cts higher compared to the same period of the prior year. New England PADD 1A added by 0.7cts to $3.955 gallon in the same reference period, Central Atlantic PADD 1B rose by 2.5cts to $3.937 gallon, and Lower Atlantic PADD 1C climbed by 2.4cts to $3.693 gallon.

Rocky Mountain PADD 4 edged up by 0.1cts to $3.754 gallon, an increase of 18.7cts compared to the same period of last year.

EIA: US Gasoline Rises; Central Atlantic Jumps 7.4cts

The national average price for retail regular gasoline rose for a fourth straight week as of Monday (9/8), led by a sharp increase in the Central Atlantic and further gains on the West Coast, according to Energy Information Administration data released on Tuesday.
The national average for retail regular gasoline increased by 1.5cts to $3.192 gallon week-on-week,  4.4cts below the same week in 2024.The East Coast PADD 1 average rose by 5.1cts to $3.063 gallon. Within the region, New England PADD 1A increased by 4.0cts to $3.110 gallon, Central Atlantic PADD 1B posted the strongest gain, rising by 7.4cts to $3.224 gallon, and Lower Atlantic PADD 1C climbed by 3.7cts to $2.949 gallon.The West Coast PADD 5 average increased by 4.6cts to $4.194 gallon, 9.0cts higher than the same period last year. West Coast less California rose by 6.9cts to $3.946 gallon as of Monday, 21.9cts above year-over-year.
The Midwest PADD 2 average fell by 3.3cts to $3.055 gallon in the reference period, 4.3cts lower than the same week last year.
The Gulf Coast PADD 3 price slipped by 3.2cts to $2.733 gallon last week, 6.7cts down from last year’s level.
The Rocky Mountain PADD 4 average rose by 5.7cts to $3.240 gallon in the profiled period,  11.7cts lower compared with the same week in 2024.
The West Coast PADD 5 average increased by 4.6cts to $4.194 gallon as of Monday, 9.0cts higher than the same period last year. West Coast less California rose by 6.9cts to $3.946 gallon, 21.9cts above the2024 level.