North Central Highlights

North Central Highlights

STORMY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND DEEP SOUTH REGIONS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND EVEN FAR SOUTH AREAS INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES TODAY AND THURSDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE U.S. FOR FRIDAY WITH SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, THEN QUIETING DOWN BEHIND IT OUTSIDE OF SOME SHOWERY WEATHER FOR SOME OF THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. MORE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. STORMS AS WELL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL MODIFY SOME NEXT WEEK TO MORE SEASONABLY COOL LEVELS. ONLY REAL WARMTH REMAINS LOCKED UP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE U.S. MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EAST: Much of the East stays quiet today under high pressure, but a few stray showers will remain possible in the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast, showers and thunderstorms will also push into the northern and western Great Lakes as a front moves through these areas. Also today, a few storms will be possible across Florida and near the lower Mississippi/western Tennessee Valley areas as well. For Thursday and Friday, a front will continue to work across the rest of the Great Lakes and Northeast regions bringing some shower and a few thunderstorm chances from the upper Ohio Valley, south/eastern Great Lakes, parts of the Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast regions as it moves through these areas. Meanwhile, a front should bring more widespread rain and storm chances to the Deep South/Gulf Coast regions for Thursday and Friday with activity likely lingering in southern areas into the weekend. The weekend should also feature some chances around parts of the Northeast and southern Appalachians as well each day with quiet weather elsewhere. Early to middle of next week should start off quiet for most areas, but some shower and storm chances could remain for some of the East, especially Southeast areas but confidence is low on the pattern along the East Coast. There does look to be a good signal that a stronger cold front should push through much of the East, but especially west and north areas of the region mid to late next week with rain and storm expected as it passes.

Temperatures:
– A cool airmass will hold for much of the East region the rest of the week and into the weekend, with readings up to 6-12 degrees below normal this week; however, most of the Gulf Coast and Florida will remain closer to seasonal levels this week but even trend slightly cooler late week/weekend.
– Trends will be to gradually moderate temperatures across the East region next week with most areas nearing seasonal along the East Coast, maybe a bit above far northeast and also around the Gulf Coast by the mid to late week period. 
– Another cooler surge of air will arrive late next week around the Great Lakes/Midwest regions with slightly below normal air.

CENTRAL: Wet and stormy the next few days across the southern reaches of the region with waves of heavy rain and storms expected. A front will also brush the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions with some shower and thunderstorm chances today with some leftover activity around the Great Lakes being possible into Thursday. Over the weekend, stormy weather should be mostly confined to near the Gulf Coast and portions of the Plains and maybe some of the Midwest region as well. Next week, a stronger front and system certainly looks possible and should traverse much of the region with shower and storm chances, along with another shot of cooler air behind it but the overall timing and magnitude of this system remains in low confidence. By late next week, the main front should mostly be over southern areas with leftover shower chances for the north, but does look like it settles a bit more elsewhere. 

Temperatures:
– Continued up to 5-10 degrees below normal for much of the region through the weekend, but seasonably warm temperatures are expected overall in far south and far north areas of the region.
– Cool anomalies lessen for most of the region early to middle of next week with cool air south half of the region and seasonably warm air north.
– Then another cool shot of air covers most of the Plains and Midwest regions by later next week, while the Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley remain seasonably warm.

WEST: Monsoonal storm chances shove a bit more north and east than previous days with some heavy storm potential in the northern Great Basin and Rocky Mountain region through the late week period with some more isolated activity still possible elsewhere over the interior West. Some minor tropical shower activity could also reach far southern California, mainly on Thursday. This weekend will feature storm chances around the Rocky Mountains and eastward into the High Plains with some heavier storm/rain chances, especially so for the Southern Rockies/High Plains. A weak upper-level system could bring a few showers and maybe a storm to some of the Pacific Northwest as well over the weekend. Next week, more daily storm chances expected with best chances currently expected in and around the Rocky Mountains. Overall, the rest of the West Coast region continues to look mostly dry throughout the forecast period.

Temperatures:
– Northwest region stays above normal throughout the forecast period, at times just above normal up to 5-10 degrees above normal.
– Much of the Great Basin, parts of the desert Southwest, and Central/Southern Rockies to High Plains remains around 3-6 degrees below normal the rest of the work week.
– Over the weekend and into next week more of the West Coast, Great Basin, and Desert Southwest warm to seasonal to 2-6 degrees above normal, while the areas near and east of the Rockies generally stays around 3-6 degrees below normal into next week.

TROPICAL: 
ATLANTIC OCEAN: Tropical Storm Fernand – Is moving NE over the northern Atlantic and is expected to continue to weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone today. 

PACIFIC OCEAN: Tropical Storm Juliette will remain well off of the coast of Baja California as it moves NW the next few days. This system should weaken into a depression by late Wednesday night and certainly so by Thursday. A few showers may impact far southern California with some moisture pushing northward off this system, but rainfall will be minor and no other impacts to the U.S. are expected with this system.

MODEL DISCUSSION:
– High resolution guidance is used for the next 48 hours to predict timing and placement of shower and thunderstorms risks.
– Models are in generally good agreement through the weekend, but do start to diverge a good bit by early next week in the case of an East Coast and middle of the country storm systems. An overall blend of the GFS/ECMWF is mainly preferred, but currently leaning a bit closer to the GFS due to the ECMWF continue to show a lot of variability over the past several days.
– An ensemble blend is used to settle continued model disagreement for the mid to late next week period.