Northeast Energy Highlights

Northeast Energy Highlights

A COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SOME DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TODAY. THEN THE EAST LOOKS TO MOSTLY QUIET DOWN OVERALL TOMORROW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WHILE THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS SHOULD BECOME A BIT STORMIER AT TIMES. BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN REGIONS THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHWEST HEAT WAVE SETTLES OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WARMER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL REGIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WHILE THE EAST STAYS COOL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EAST: Today, a cold front will remain active around the Appalachians to the East Coast with more showers and storms expected. By Sunday, a few leftover showers could linger along the East Coast with some storms into the Carolinas to Florida and showers around the Great Lakes as well. The pattern overall remains a relatively quiet one through next week and into the following weekend with a series of high pressures the dominant feature. However, some storms will remain near the Carolina/Southeast Coast at times through next week and beyond, while a weakening front also traverses the northern areas with some showers and storms possible through the week as well.

Temperatures:
– Warm conditions are expected ahead of a strong cold front along the East Coast and Northeast today.
– Behind the strong cold front, temperatures will continue to plummet  with readings up to 5-15 degrees below normal through the weekend.
– Cool air will spread further eastward to the East Coast by late weekend and into the first half of next week but will not be quite as cool as further west with readings more likely in the 5-10 degree below normal range.
– All in all, temperatures moderate by mid to late next week while the East Coast stays near to around 5 degrees below normal and to more seasonal around the Gulf Coast and into the western Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
– By next weekend, temperatures will be near to slightly below normal along the East Coast, while the areas west of the Appalachians will continue to moderate to normal to 3-6 degrees above normal.

CENTRAL: A few stray showers may be possible in the Upper Midwest again today, but much of the region settles into high pressure. A front will continue to drift across southern reaches of the region keeping daily storm chances over these areas through the weekend. High pressure keeps the heart of the Midwest and mid to lower Mississippi Valley mostly quiet through early next week and another one later in the week will continue to keep this area mostly quiet through the late week and forecast period as well. A series of fronts and disturbances will however keep portions of the Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes occasionally stormy through next week and into the following weekend.

Temperatures:
– Below to well below normal air continues to spread across most of the region through the weekend with readings up to 5-15 degrees below normal, but far southern areas will remain a bit above normal today near seasonal into Sunday.
– Temperatures then slowly warm across all of the region from west to east through next week and even into the following weekend as much of the region returns to up to 5-10 degrees above normal by later in the period.

WEST: Monsoonal storms will continue over the parts of the Interior West each day through the weekend. Not as active over some of the Southwest Desert and Great Basin late weekend and into early next week as most of the daily activity focuses mostly over the Rocky Mountain region. A trough of low pressure is expected to set up late weekend and through much of next week and even beyond, which will continue to bring waves of daily showers and thunderstorms for northern California, Northwest, and into Northern Rockies. The monsoon activity over the Southwest/Four Corners, Great Basin, and Southern Rockies is also expected to increase again by later next week and through the following weekend. 

Temperatures:
– Above to well above normal in the Northwest corner of the region through the weekend, while another surge of cool air will slide down the spine of the Rockies and across the High Plains to the Southwest with readings just below normal and up to 5-10 degrees below normal through the weekend. 
– The temperature pattern then shifts next week and beyond with far north and all of the Rocky Mountain and High Plains regions running anywhere from 3-8 degrees above normal; all while most of California and the western half of the Great Basin will cool to 3-6 degrees below normal next week, maybe moderating to more seasonal by the following weekend.

TROPICAL: 
Atlantic Ocean – Tropical Atlantic (AL91): Shower and thunderstorm activity is currently limited and disorganized in association with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. Although upper-level winds are generally favorable for development, environmental dry air is likely to limit development over the next couple of days. However, a tropical depression could still form early next week as the system moves westward at around 10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. This system is likely to be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week, and interests there should monitor its progress. Tropical formation chance through 48 hours is medium at 40 percent and formation chance through 7 days is high at 70 percent.

Pacific Ocean – 1. Hurricane Kiko will continue to track northwest through the weekend as a major hurricane. The system will start to weaken during the early work week and is expected to pass just north of Hawaii Monday and Tuesday as a tropical storm. While a direct landfall is not expected at this time, the risk of high winds, heavy rain, and dangerous seas is moderate to high for a large portion of the islands and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm.

MODEL DISCUSSION:
– High resolution guidance is used for the next 48 hours for timing and placement of showers and thunderstorms.
– Models remain in good agreement through early to middle of next week so a blend of the GFS/ECMWF remains in place to settle some timing and magnitude of a few storm systems.
– Overall, the models remain in fair agreement late next week through the following weekend, but enough disagreement remains that an ensemble blend remains in place to finish the late forecast period.