Northeast Energy Highlights cloned

Northeast Energy Highlights cloned

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO MUCH OF EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING RENEWED STORM CHANCES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST. MONSOONAL STORM CHANCES PERSIST ACROSS WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. BY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EAST WHILE WEST REMAINS HOT. MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD THIS WEEK REMAINING EAST OF THE U.S.

EAST: Today through Thursday, a low pressure system and attendant cold front will make their way through East bringing scattered shower and thunderstorm chances to many. A few of these storms could be strong to severe. Drier conditions are expected to develop across northern areas Thursday into the early weekend. Across the Southeast and Deep South, this cold front may stall out leading to repeated shower and storm chances. By late this weekend into early next week, another cold front is expected to sweep through East bringing renewed chances for showers and storms to all. Additionally, Hurricane Erin is expected to track north then northeast off the coast this week. The current track keeps the system offshore and limits most impacts to dangerous surf conditions, but we will continue to monitor for any changes. 

Temperatures:
– Today through Wednesday, the Northeast will be a few degrees below normal, the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will remain above normal, and areas elsewhere will be near seasonal.
– Thursday, most areas will be within a few degrees of seasonal. 
– Friday through Sunday, the Northeast will trend a few degrees above normal, the Carolinas into Georgia will trend a few degrees below normal, and areas elsewhere remain near seasonal.
– Next week, temperatures will trend slightly below average for many.

CENTRAL: A low pressure system and attendant cold front will continue to work its way through the Midwest and Great Lakes region today, bringing chances for scattered showers and storms. Some storms may be strong to severe. For areas further south, only some afternoon showers and storms will be possible. For Wednesday and Thursday, this cold front will slide south and impact areas from the Central/Southern Plans through the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley bringing scattered shower and storm chances while northern areas dry out as high pressure passes through. Some storm chances may evolve from the Northern Plains through the Great Lakes late Thursday through the early weekend as a cold front passes through, but mainly dry conditions should prevail for most. By late weekend into next week, afternoon storm chances may return to the Plains  and Upper Midwest as another disturbance or two works into the region.

Temperatures:
– Today, the Mid-Mississippi Valley will remain above normal while areas elsewhere trend to near seasonal.
– Wednesday and Thursday, the Northern Plains will be above normal whiles areas elsewhere trend near seasonal to a few degrees below normal.
– Friday into next week, below normal temperatures spill into much of Central with the coolest anomalies expected across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

WEST: Monsoonal flow will keep daily mountain thunderstorm chances in place over the Southern and Central Rockies today through mid-week. By late this week through the weekend, expect daily chances for widely scattered mountain thunderstorms to become more widespread as some more substantial moisture  moves into the Southern Rockies. Additionally a few disturbances could bring scattered storm activity to the Northern Rockies at times. Meanwhile, the West Coast is expected to remain dry.

Temperatures:
– Today through Wednesday, much of the West Coast remains near seasonal while interior areas trend above to well above normal.
– Thursday into next week, much of West will be above to well above normal, with the warmest anomalies expected across California.

TROPICAL: 
– Hurricane Erin is located east of the Bahamas. Current guidance continues to favor a north then northeast turn this week, which would keep the system offshore of the US and limit overall impact to the US. However, interests along the eastern seaboard should continue to monitor the forecast for any changes. 
– A tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic is being monitored for development. Chances for development are increasing and now sit near 60% over the next 7 days. However, it is too early to determine what, if any, impacts could occur to the US.

MODEL DISCUSSION:
– High resolution guidance is used for the next 48 hours to resolve showers and thunderstorms.
– Models are in fairly good agreement through much of this week, so a GFS/ECMWF blend is used to capture different timings of waves of storms.
– Both models keep the track of Erin off the eastern coast. 
– An ensemble blend was favored this weekend through the end of the period as model solutions diverge in the extended range.