Northeast Highlights

Northeast Highlights

A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL KEEP SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN REGIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN QUIETS DOWN FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE COOL FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE FOR MUCH OF THESE COOLER AREAS. NORTHWEST HEAT WAVE WILL FINALLY EASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

EAST: A strong cold front will bring a chance of some showers and a few stronger thunderstorms today around the eastern Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and central/southern Appalachian region. Another disturbance will follow and push some rain into the north/west Great Lakes Thursday night and into Friday morning as well. The leftover cold front will bring some shower and thundershower chances to the Northeast with better chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms around the Ohio and Tennessee Valley’s. Meanwhile, shower and storms remain across Florida today and Friday as well, some heavy in far southern Florida. A front will bring showers and some storms further south and east into the weekend, especially the first half north and both days in the South. High pressure looks to be the dominant weather feature for most areas next week through early next weekend which will keep things generally quiet for much of the East. However, some showers could be possible at times around some of the Great Lakes along with rain and storm chances remaining possible at times for Florida and near the Southeast/Carolina Coasts next week.

Temperatures:
– Mild ahead of a strong cold front along the East Coast today and more so for Friday and Saturday.
– Behind a strong cold front, temperatures will continue to plummet today and Friday around the Great Lakes and Midwest with readings up to 5-15 degrees below normal expected around these areas through the weekend.
– Cool air will spread further eastward to the East Coast by late weekend and into the first half of next week but will not be quite as cool as further west with readings more likely in the 5-10 degree below normal range.
– All in all, temperatures moderate by mid to late next week and start of the following weekend with readings along the East Coast staying near to 5 degrees below normal and more seasonal around the Gulf Coast and into the western Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.

CENTRAL: One front fades today, but another disturbance and front will bring rain and some embedded thunder to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight while the southern end of the front will bring showers and thunderstorms around the Central Plains as well. By Friday, blustery and showery around the Great Lakes, especially northern areas and also showers and thunderstorms will remain possible along a front around the Central/Southern Plains, lower Missouri and mid to lower Mississippi Valley, and around the Ozarks through Friday night. Much of the region stays relatively quiet under high pressure for the weekend and into next week, but a few disturbances may bring some showers to northern areas and maybe becoming more active north by later in the forecast period. The weekend and into early next week should also remain stormy for southern areas, especially around Texas with some added tropical moisture pushing along a frontal boundary. 

Temperatures:
– Quite cool temperatures will spread across much of the region this late week through the weekend with readings up to 5-15 degrees below normal, but should areas remain closer to 3-6 degrees above normal through Friday and seasonably warm along the Gulf Coast into the weekend.
– Temperatures then slowly warm across the region from west to east through next week as it goes from mostly below normal early week to mostly seasonal up to 3-6 degrees above normal by late week and beyond.

WEST: Monsoonal storms will continue over the parts of the Interior West each day through the weekend and may get enhanced into some heavy rain due to some tropical influence for some of Arizona and New Mexico later Friday and into Saturday. Not as active over some of the Southwest Desert and Great Basin late weekend and into early next week. A trough of low pressure does set up late weekend and much of next week, which will bring plenty of daily shower and thunderstorm chances across northern California, Northwest, and into Northern Rockies. The monsoon activity over the Southwest/Four Corners, Great Basin, and Southern Rockies should also increase by later next week and into the following weekend. 

Temperatures:
– Above to well above normal in the Northwest corner of the region today through the weekend, while another surge of cool air will slide down the spine of the Rockies and across the High Plains the Southwest with readings just below normal up to 5-10 degrees below normal through the weekend. 
– The temperature pattern then shifts next week and beyond with far north and most of the Rockies, eastward turning to seasonal to 3-6 degrees above normal; all while most of California and a good portion of the Great Basin will cool to 3-6 degrees below normal.

TROPICAL: 
Atlantic Ocean – Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions remain conducive for additional development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic into early next week. Tropical formation chance through 48 hours is medium at 40 percent and formation chance through 7 days is high at 80 percent.

Pacific Ocean – 1. Hurricane Kiko will move westward over the next few days and more northwest late week and into the weekend out over the open Pacific Ocean. Kiko is expected to become a major hurricane the rest of the week as well. There could be some impacts to Hawaii as this storm fades by Tuesday and Wednesday, but overall specific impacts are uncertain at this time.

Pacific Ocean – 2. Hurricane Lorena will track more north to then northeast today and tonight, likely to make landfall along the western central coast of Baja California on Friday. This system will then dissipate over northwest Mexico this weekend. Direct impacts to the U.S. are not expected, but it should increase the monsoonal moisture in portions of the Southwest U.S. Friday and Saturday and possibly even across Texas over the weekend and maybe even some into Monday with some heavy rains expected. 

MODEL DISCUSSION:
– High resolution guidance is used for the next 48 hours for timing and placement of showers and thunderstorms.
– Models remain in good agreement through the weekend and into early next week, but a GFS/ECMWF blend is used to capture some of the more subtle differences.
– Overall fair agreement remains with the models for the rest of next week and start of the following weekend, but an ensemble blend remains in place for later in the forecast period.