Ohio Valley Highlights

Ohio Valley Highlights

A COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SOME DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN THE EAST LOOKS TO MOSTLY QUIET DOWN OVERALL THE REST OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WHILE THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS SHOULD BECOME A BIT STORMIER AT TIMES. BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN REGIONS THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHWEST HEAT WAVE SETTLES OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WARMER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL REGIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WHILE THE EAST STAYS COOL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EAST: Another disturbance pushes through the Great Lakes today and this will likely trigger more showers and storms along a cold front around the Tennessee/Ohio Valley to the eastern Great Lakes and Appalachians. By Saturday, this front will remain active around the Appalachians to the East Coast with more showers and storms expected. By Sunday, a few leftover showers could linger along the East Coast with some storms into the Carolinas to Florida and showers around the Great Lakes as well. The pattern overall remains a relatively quiet one through next week and into the following weekend with a series of high pressures the dominant feature. However, some storms will remain near the Carolina/Southeast Coast at times through next week and beyond, while a weakening front also traverses the northern areas with some showers and storms possible through the week as well.

Temperatures:
– Warm conditions are expected ahead of a strong cold front along the East Coast and Northeast today and into Saturday.
– Behind a strong cold front, temperatures will continue to plummet today around the Great Lakes and Midwest with readings up to 5-15 degrees below normal around these areas through the weekend.
– Cool air will spread further eastward to the East Coast by late weekend and into the first half of next week but will not be quite as cool as further west with readings more likely in the 5-10 degree below normal range.
– All in all, temperatures moderate by mid to late next week while the East Coast stays near to around 5 degrees below normal and to more seasonal around the Gulf Coast and into the western Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
– By next weekend, temperatures will be near to slightly below normal along the East Coast, while the areas west of the Appalachians will continue to moderate to normal to 3-6 degrees above normal.

CENTRAL: Breezy and showery around the Great Lakes region today, while a cold front will remain stormy over the Central and Southern Plains and into the Ozark Mountain region today. A few stray showers may become possible in the Upper Midwest again on Saturday, but much of the region settles into high pressure. A front will continue to drift across southern reaches of the region keeping daily storm chances over these areas through the weekend. High pressure keeps the heart of the Midwest and mid to lower Mississippi Valley mostly quiet through early next week and another one later in the week will continue to keep this area mostly quiet through the late week and forecast period as well. A series of fronts and disturbances will however keep portions of the Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes occasionally stormy through next week and into the following weekend.

Temperatures:
– Below to well below normal air continues to spread across most of the region through the weekend with readings up to 5-15 degrees below normal, but far southern areas will remain a bit above normal today and Saturday and near seasonal into Sunday.
– Temperatures then slowly warm across all of the region from west to east through next week and even into the following weekend as much of the region returns to up to 5-10 degrees above normal by later in the period.

WEST: Monsoonal storms will continue over the parts of the Interior West each day through the weekend. Not as active over some of the Southwest Desert and Great Basin late weekend and into early next week as most of the daily activity focuses mostly over the Rocky Mountain region. A trough of low pressure is expected to set up late weekend and through much of next week and even beyond, which will continue to bring waves of daily showers and thunderstorms for northern California, Northwest, and into Northern Rockies. The monsoon activity over the Southwest/Four Corners, Great Basin, and Southern Rockies is also expected to increase again by later next week and through the following weekend. 

Temperatures:
– Above to well above normal in the Northwest corner of the region today through the weekend, while another surge of cool air will slide down the spine of the Rockies and across the High Plains to the Southwest with readings just below normal and up to 5-10 degrees below normal through the weekend. 
– The temperature pattern then shifts next week and beyond with far north and all of the Rocky Mountain and High Plains regions running anywhere from 3-8 degrees above normal; all while most of California and the western half of the Great Basin will cool to 3-6 degrees below normal next week, maybe moderating to more seasonal by the following weekend.

TROPICAL: 
Atlantic Ocean – Tropical Atlantic (AL91): A broad area of low pressure has formed along a tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system continues to slowly become better organized with shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are favorable for additional development of the system and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend as it moves slowly westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system as it approaches from the east by the middle of next week. Tropical formation chance through 48 hours is medium at 60 percent and formation chance through 7 days is high at 90 percent.

Pacific Ocean – 1. Hurricane Kiko is a major hurricane as it moves WNW over the next few days and more NW over the weekend. It is expected to remain a major hurricane over the open Pacific Ocean through Saturday night. Gradual weakening in strength is expected late weekend and into early to middle of next week. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. The risk of direct impacts from wind and rainfall is increasing. However, it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm.

Pacific Ocean – 2. Tropical Storm Lorena should be a depression by early today as it continues to fade just off the western Baja California coast. Direct impacts to the U.S. will not occur, but there could still be some slight increase in additional moisture to the monsoon over the Southwest region into the weekend. 

MODEL DISCUSSION:
– High resolution guidance is used for the next 48 hours for timing and placement of showers and thunderstorms.
– Models remain in good agreement through early to middle of next week so a blend of the GFS/ECMWF remains in place to settle some timing and magnitude of a few storm systems.
– Overall, the models remain in fair agreement late next week through the following weekend, but enough disagreement remains that an ensemble blend remains in place to finish the late forecast period.