High Pressure Mostly Holds

NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL HUG THE EAST COAST TODAY AND A LITTLE INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER PARTS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL REGIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL EAST COAST AND SOUTHWEST AREAS, WHILE THE REST OF THE ROCKIES TO CENTRAL AND MIDWEST AREAS SEES THINGS RETURNING TOWARDS SUMMER-LIKE READINGS.

EAST: Mostly quiet across the region through the rest of the week, but a coastal disturbance will bring some showers to parts of the Atlantic coastal areas the next few days. A weak boundary will also bring some showers and maybe a few thunderstorms to the northern Great Lakes today and Wednesday. Parts of Florida also remain stormy at times the rest of the week as well. Over the weekend, some of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast may see some showers and a few thunderstorms at times as a weak boundary slides through these areas. Maybe not as quiet through next week with additional showers and thunderstorms in spots, best chances South and around the Midwest/Great Lakes as it looks right now.

Temperatures:
– Cool air hugs the East Coast through the weekend, but warming around and west of the Appalachians up to 4-8 degrees above normal.
– Next week, temperatures along the East Coast mostly remain either side of seasonal overall, while the rest of the region continues to run up to 4-8 degrees above normal.

CENTRAL: A few showers and storms possible around parts of the region today and Thursday with most organized activity possible around the Central and Northern Plains, but many areas are expected to remain overall day the next few days. Much of the same for late week and into the weekend with some areas of showers and thunderstorms, but many staying quiet. It does look like the north central portions of the region have the better chances for these showers and storms at time Friday through Sunday. The pattern next week certainly looks stormy for some each day and maybe more of the region as well as the week wears on.

Temperatures:
– Continued warming is expected for all of the region through the weekend with max anomalies up to 7-14 degrees above normal over the eastern Plains and Midwest regions by Friday and Saturday.
– Staying warm around the region through next week as well but less anomalous, more likely up to 4-8 degrees above normal overall, especially over the Mississippi Valley/Midwest region.

WEST: Daily monsoonal storms are expected in and around the higher elevations of the Rocky Mountains/Four Corners regions in varying coverage and intensities into next week. A disturbance also will drift across the north reaches of the region which will bring some shower and storm enhancement as it slowly moves west to east through the week and into the weekend. Another similar disturbance increases shower and storm chances once again over NorCal, parts of the Northwest, and northern Great Basin to northern Rockies late weekend and early next week before fading as it moves further eastward.

Temperatures:
– Warmer than normal north and areas near and east of the Rocky Mountains the rest of the week and weekend, while cooler than normal air is likely for much of California/Great Basin region.
– The cooler air will moderate through next week to seasonal to a bit above normal around the Great Basin/Southwest region, while the West Coast warms and north areas remain about 3-6 degrees above normal, and the Four Corners to central/southern High Plains may trend a cooler to near normal readings.

TROPICAL: 
No current concerns in the Atlantic Ocean.

Pacific Ocean – Tropical Storm Kiko will continue to slide north and away of the Hawaiian Islands today while continuing to weaken. Kiko should become a depression sometime today as it weakens furthermore. Wave concerns remain today along the north/east coasts, but should also diminish today as Kiko moves away from the islands.

MODEL DISCUSSION:
– High resolution guidance is used for the next 24-48 hours for timing and placement of showers and thunderstorms.
– Models remain in good to fair agreement this weekend and into early next week and a blend of the GFS/ECMWF remains in place to settle some timing and magnitude of a few storm systems.
– The models remain in fair agreement for mid to late next week, but enough disagreement remains that an ensemble blend is preferred through the end of the period.