Oil Ends Up After OPEC’s Smaller-Than-Expected Output Hike

SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) – Oil futures extended their rebound from four-month lows Monday (10/6) after OPEC+’s eight largest producers opted for the same modest output hike in November as they did for October.

NYMEX-traded WTI crude for November delivery rose $0.81, or 1.3%, to settle at $61.69 bbl, finishing up for a second straight session after a prior losing streak of four days.

ICE Brent crude for December delivery gained $0.94, or 1.5%, to $65.47 bbl.

Among oil products, November RBOB gasoline futures gained $0.0388 to $1.8993 gallon, and front-month ULSD futures inched up $0.0072 to $2.2435 gallon.

The eight OPEC+ countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — announced their second straight monthly output hike of 137,000 bpd on Sunday (10/5). The market had been speculating on increases between two and four times larger.

OPEC’+s production pivot – from years of cuts aimed at boosting crude prices to increases now meant to grow exports – were largely responsible for the 10% loss in oil futures that came over the last two months after July’s near 8% rally.

WTI sunk to as low as $60.42 last week, a bottom not seen since June 6.

Adding to bearish pressure was news that some 200,000 bpd of crude had begun flowing again Iraq’s northern Kurdistan territory, after being suspended since 2023.

Even so, the U.S. Energy Information Administration observed in a market review Monday that the OPEC+ increases on their own “have not contributed to widespread increases in observable inventories”.

The EIA also noted that Brent ended the third quarter virtually flat despite the price volatility of the past three months.

Notwithstanding the EIA’s observations, Bloomberg reported on Monday that volumes of oil in transit at sea jumped to a nine-year high 1.2 billion bbl last month, citing tanker tracker data from Vortexa.

Including oil in floating storage, total volumes on water were still the highest since 2020, when a pandemic induced demand plunge led to rapidly swelling storage on- and offshore, the Bloomberg report noted.

Market participants will be on the lookout Tuesday for EIA’s short-term energy outlook (STEO) for October.

In September’s STEO, the agency significantly increased its forecast for OECD oil inventory growth for the 2025–2026 period to 6%. It also raised the expected growth rate for 2024–2025 from 5% to 6.1%.

As a result, global inventories could grow by an average of more than 2 million bpd in the third quarter through the first quarter of 2026, the EIA said last month. That forecast did not consider the back-to-back OPEC+ production hikes of 137,000 bpd announced for October and November.