OPEC: Gasoline, Jet Fuel to Dominate Global Demand in 2026

SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) – Gasoline is expected to contribute to nearly a third of global oil demand in 2026, closely followed by jet fuel, which dominated consumption this year, OPEC said in its monthly oil market report released Monday (10/13).

Gasoline demand is expected to grow by 430,000 bpd while uptake of jet kerosene is seen expanding by 360,000 bpd against the forecast growth of 1.4 million bpd in crude oil, according to the October report of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Regionally, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development is forecast to grow by around 150,000 bpd year-on-year, versus the anticipated non-OECD increase of over 1.2 million bpd.

For the current year, OPEC forecasts that crude demand will grow by 1.3 million bpd year-on-year, of which jet fuel will share a growth share of 380,000 bpd, followed by diesel at 380,000 bpd and gasoline at 280,000 bpd.

OECD demand is anticipated to grow by 130,000 bpd and non-OECD by 1.2 million bpd.

“Ongoing improvements in airline activities in OECD are expected to support jet/kerosene, driving oil demand growth in 2025 by around 120,000 bpd year-on-year,” OPEC stated. “With the exception of NGLs/LPG and jet/kerosene, all other product categories in OECD have not yet managed to reach 2019 pre-pandemic levels.”

Year-to-date figures as of July showed U.S. demand for fuel products rising as of July. Natural gas liquids and liquefied petroleum gas saw the largest U.S. product increase of 477,000  bpd as of July, year-on-year, according to the report.

In the U.S., jet kerosene demand increased by 44,000 bpd. However, gasoline contracted by 168,000 bid year on-year and naphtha demand only rose slightly by 47,000 bpd.