OPEC+ Output Surged 630,000 BPD in September

VIENNA (DTN) – Combined crude oil production by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners, collectively known as OPEC+, rose by 630,000 bpd month-on-month in September, the latest monthly oil report from the group said Monday (10/13).

The increase was spearheaded by Saudi Arabia and Russia, which, respectively, pumped 248,000 bpd and 148,000 bpd more crude oil than in August, according to the October report of OPEC.

Output from OPEC+ without Libyan, Venezuelan and Iranian output, rose by 540,000 bpd month-on-month.

The bulk of the increase came from the eight member countries that since 2023 have shouldered an additional 2.2 million bpd in voluntary reductions from preset quotas, before beginning to rapidly unwind those cuts through the second and third quarters of this year.

OPEC core members Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Algeria, along with four partners ramped up production by a combined 572,000 bpd, despite drops in Kazakh and Mexican crude oil production. The production estimates are based on secondary sources as opposed to direct communication from member countries.

OPEC’s latest report left its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.38 million bpd and raised growth expectations for this year by 100,000 bpd to 1.30 million bpd.

Growth forecasts for supply from outside OPEC+ for this year and next were left unchanged at 800,000 bpd and 600,000 bpd, respectively.

OPEC’s demand growth estimates are significantly higher than those of agencies like the Paris-based International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

OPEC’s forecasts of non-OPEC supply growth are at the low end of analysts’ expectations, leading the group to see a small deficit in next year’s global supply-demand balance. That is at odds with other forecasters, who expect a large crude overhang in 2026.