Active Near Gulf Coast

General Overview: MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRING RAIN, MIXED PRECIPITATION, AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN US. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.

EAST: A high pressure system will maintain generally dry conditions across much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through the early part of the week. By Monday, rain and thunderstorm activity will increase across the Southeast and Gulf Coast as the pattern gets busier. The Florida peninsula and Gulf Coast states will experience increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity, with potential for heavy downpours and localized flooding as an area of low pressure develops. As the week progresses, a cold front will sweep through the eastern states, bringing rain chances to the Northeast by Tuesday into Wednesday. The Southeast will continue to deal with moisture and activity through midweek.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Above normal temperatures will prevail across most of the East, with the warmest anomalies (6-12°F above normal) focused on the Northeast and Great Lakes regions.

-Days 4-6: Temperatures will remain above normal but begin moderating as the cold front moves through. Most areas will see temperatures 2-6°F above normal.

-Days 7-10: Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures will settle in across most of the East, with any remaining warm anomalies generally 2-4°F above normal.

CENTRAL: Multiple frontal boundaries will affect the Central US during the forecast period. A cold front extending from the Northern Plains through the Central Plains will bring rain and thunderstorms to portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday. By Monday, this system shifts eastward with a new low pressure system developing in the Central Plains. Rain and thunderstorm activity will spread across the Central Plains into the Midwest, with some mixed precipitation possible in the Northern Plains. As the week progresses, high pressure builds into the region, bringing drier conditions by midweek. Another frontal system approaches from the west by late week, bringing renewed precipitation chances to the Central Plains and Midwest.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Significantly above normal temperatures will dominate the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with anomalies of 8-12°F above normal. The Central Plains will see temperatures 4-8°F above normal.

-Days 4-6: Temperatures will moderate but remain above normal across most of the Central region, with anomalies of 2-6°F above normal.

-Days 7-10: Temperatures trend closer to normal, though the Central Plains may see a return to above normal temperatures (4-8°F) by days 9-10.

WEST: A series of low pressure systems will affect the Western US throughout the forecast period. Rain and mixed precipitation will impact the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies on Sunday, with snow possible at higher elevations. By Monday, high pressure builds briefly over the Intermountain West, bringing drier conditions. Another system approaches the Pacific Northwest by Tuesday, bringing renewed precipitation chances. The Southwest will see scattered rain and thunderstorm activity, particularly across Arizona and New Mexico. California will experience mostly dry conditions with occasional rain chances along the northern coast. By late week, precipitation chances increase across the Northwest and Northern Rockies.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Below normal temperatures will affect portions of the Intermountain West and Pacific Northwest, with anomalies of 2-6°F below normal. The Southwest will see near normal temperatures.

-Days 4-6: Temperatures trend closer to normal across most of the West, with slight below normal readings persisting in parts of the Pacific Northwest and slight above normal readings developing in the Southwest.

-Days 7-10: Generally near normal temperatures will prevail across most of the West, with some areas in the Southwest seeing slightly above normal temperatures (2-4°F).

TROPICAL:
ATLANTIC BASIN:
1. Eastern Atlantic: A low moving westward from Africa is currently producing a broad areas of shower and thunderstorms. This low is expected to gradually develop under favorable environmental conditions within the next few days, and a tropical depression could form near the middle to later parts of this next week as it reaches the Leeward Islands. Any potential impact of this system to the US would likely be beyond 7 days. Tropical cyclone formation chance is low at 30% in the next 48 hours, and medium at 60% through the next 7 days.

EAST PACIFIC BASIN: No tropical development is expected to impact the western US in the next 7 days.