Remaining Unsettled

General Overview: ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EAST:  Conditions will dry out across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today behind Thursday’s cold front. By Saturday, rain and thunderstorm activity will continues across the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast. Areas from the Mid-Atlantic to Florida could experience periods of heavy rainfall, with the greatest concentration of precipitation along coastal regions. The pattern begins to clear from north to south by Sunday into early next week, though some shower activity may linger in parts of the coastal Southeast.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Slightly above normal temperatures across most of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, with anomalies of 2-6°F above normal. Near normal temperatures for much of the Southeast.

-Days 4-6: Generally near normal temperatures across most of the East, with slight warming trend in the Northeast. Coastal areas remain slightly above normal.

-Days 7-10: Temperatures trending closer to normal across the entire Eastern region with only slight positive anomalies remaining in parts of New England.

CENTRAL:  High pressure will dominate the Central Plains and Midwest for the first part of the forecast period, keeping conditions generally dry across much of the region. A cold front will push through far northern portions of the region Saturday, but shower coverage will likely be poor with limited moisture. By Saturday evening, high pressure builds across the Missouri Valley, reinforcing the dry conditions. Some thunderstorm activity may develop along the Gulf Coast portions of the region as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico interacts with frontal boundaries. The overall pattern remains relatively quiet for the Central states through the weekend and into early next week.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Near normal temperatures across most of the Central region with slight positive anomalies in the northern Plains.

-Days 4-6: Warming trend develops with temperatures climbing to 6-12°F above normal across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with the warmest anomalies in the Dakotas.

-Days 7-10: Above normal temperatures continue across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, gradually moderating but remaining 3-6°F above normal through the period.

WEST:  Active weather pattern across the Southwest with areas of heavy rain and potential flash flooding. Arizona and New Mexico face the greatest threat for heavy rainfall and flooding today. Low pressure systems along the West Coast will bring periods of rain to the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. By Saturday, the focus of heavy precipitation shifts eastward into New Mexico. High pressure builds over the Great Basin and Rockies, bringing drier conditions to much of the interior West by Sunday. The Southwest monsoon pattern continues to influence precipitation across the region, with thunderstorm activity possible each afternoon in the desert Southwest and portions of the Southern Rockies.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Slightly above normal temperatures for much of the West, with some below normal readings in Southern California and Arizona where cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures cooler.

-Days 4-6: Warming trend develops across the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest with temperatures 3-8°F above normal. Slight cooling in parts of California and the Southwest.

-Days 7-10: Above normal temperatures persist across the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains, with near normal temperatures returning to the Southwest and California coast.

TROPICAL:
ATLANTIC BASIN: 
1. Central Tropical Atlantic: Tropical Storm Humberto currently exists approximately 475 miles NE of the Northern Leeward Islands and is moving northwest at 3 mph. Humberto is expected to continue northwestward over the weekend, with a northward turn expected sometime early next week. No impacts to the U.S. are currently expected with Humberto.

2. Extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea: A tropical wave located over the Windward and Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for slow development over the next few days as the wave moves westward to west-northwestward. By late week, the system is expected to slow down and turn more northwestward, and a tropical depression could form late this week when the system is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the Bahamas. Tropical formation chance through 48 hours is high at 80 percent and formation chance through 7 days is high at 90 percent.

EAST PACIFIC BASIN: Hurricane Narda currently exists about 765 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, and is moving west at 16 mph. Narda is expected to take a slight northwesterly turn late this week into the coming weekend. Steady strengthening is forecast in the near term. No impacts to the U.S. are expected with Narda.