Southeast Highlights

Southeast Highlights

MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE ROCKIES ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEK. FLORIDA WILL ALSO STAY ACTIVE WITH DAILY STORM THREATS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US FAIRLY QUIET THIS WEEK. COOLER AIR WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TODAY BEFORE WARMER AIR SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE WEST MID TO LATE WEEK. 

EAST: Daily thunderstorms will continue over Florida throughout the period and could clip other coastal areas at time. A few stray showers could clip northern areas at times, but most of the East should stay dry through the week. A couple weak disturbances could bring some scattered showers and storms to the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend, but most areas will stay fairly quiet into next week. 

Temperatures:
– Below to well below normal temperatures are forecast across the region today and tomorrow. 
– Warmer air will nose back in from the west mid-to-late week, bringing areas west of the Appalachians above normal while areas to the east remain a little below normal. 
– Most areas will see above normal temperatures this weekend into next week, but some coastal areas will remain seasonal. 

CENTRAL: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the Plains through mid-week, with the best chances over the Northern and Central Plains. Meanwhile, high pressure will keep the Midwest and Mississippi Valley mostly quiet. Mountain storms could push into the western Plains at times later this week, with high pressure keeping areas farther east on the quieter side. A series of fronts and disturbances are expected to bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms to much of the region this weekend into next week, though southern areas may miss out on most of this activity. 

Temperatures:
– Warmer air begins to move into the Northern Plains today, bringing them above normal while the rest of the region stays below normal.
– This warmer air will spread across the region through the middle of the week.
– Above to well above normal temperatures area forecast across the region by the end of the work week and will continue through the rest of the period. 

WEST: Monsoonal moisture is expected to pick back up through the week, bringing daily chances for thunderstorms to the Southwest/Four Corners, Great Basin, and Southern Rockies through the weekend. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure is expected to set up through much of the week, which will continue to bring waves of daily showers and thunderstorms for northern California, Northwest, and into Northern Rockies. Much of the region should start to quiet down next week, but the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies will likely remain active. 

Temperatures:
– Most of the region will see above normal temperatures hold today and tomorrow while cooler air builds over California and the Great Basin.
– Below normal temperatures will spread over more of the region through the rest of the week, but far northern areas and the eastern Rockies will hold onto some warmth. 
– Most areas will return closer to seasonal this weekend, with some mild warmth potentially returning next week.

TROPICAL: 
Pacific Ocean – 1. Hurricane Kiko will start to weaken during the early work week and is expected to pass just north of Hawaii today and tomorrow while weakening into a tropical storm. While a direct landfall is not expected at this time, the risk of high winds, heavy rain, and dangerous seas is moderate to high for eastern and northern portions of the islands and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm.

MODEL DISCUSSION:
– High resolution guidance is used for the next 24-48 hours for timing and placement of showers and thunderstorms.
– Models remain in good agreement through the week so a blend of the GFS/ECMWF remains in place to settle some timing and magnitude of a few storm systems.
– Overall, the models remain in fair agreement this weekend through next week, but enough disagreement remains that an ensemble blend is preferred through the end of the period. 

DTN Meteorologist: Tyrus Skaer