Southwest Energy Highlights

Southwest Energy Highlights

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, DAILY STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF. THE COLD FRONT COULD STALL OVER THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY PROLONGING THE RAIN THREAT. MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WILL STAY COOL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND, WHILE HIGHER HEAT HOLD OVER THE WEST AND MORE SO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NEXT WEEK. 

EAST: A few afternoon showers and storms are possible in the Southeast today, but most areas remain dry. A low pressure system and strong cold front will start to build into the Great Lakes tomorrow, bringing showers and thunderstorms that will push across most of the East through the end of the week. High pressure will start to dry out the region this weekend, but lingering showers remain possible at times. Northern areas should stay quieter next week, with rounds of showers and thunderstorms forecast across the Southeast. Some of this activity could reach farther north along the East Coast at times. 

Temperatures:
– Most of the region will run a few degrees below normal today and tomorrow, with areas in Florida and along the Canadian border holding closer to normal.
– A surge of cooler air will drop the Great Lakes well below normal Thursday and Friday, while areas closer to the coast and in the Southeast see temperatures rise a few degrees above normal ahead of the cold front. 
– Cooler air will spread across the region this weekend, dropping most areas below to well below normal.
– Temperatures will stay cool throughout next week, but may creep closer to normal by the end of the period. 

CENTRAL: A strong cold front will swing through the Northern Plains today, bringing showers and thunderstorms with a slight chance of severe storms. This activity will push across the Central Plains and Midwest region Wednesday and Thursday. Additional showers will keep rain chances in place for most areas behind this front through the end of the week. High pressure will build over most of the region this weekend, confining most rain chances to the far Southern Plains. Some weak disturbances could bring some additional shower and storm chances back to the region next week, but confidence on any details is low. 

Temperatures:
– A strong push of cool air will push in from the north today, bringing most of the region below to well below normal by tomorrow; though far southern areas will stay a little above normal. 
– Cool air will dominate the region through the weekend, with only coastal areas staying close to normal. 
– Warmth will start to build back over the High Plains early next week and slowly spread east throughout next week, returning most areas closer to normal by the end of the forecast period. 

WEST: Monsoonal storms will continue over the Great Basin and Four Corners region today and tomorrow. This activity will spread farther north into the region through the end of the week. A surge of moisture this weekend, could bring better chances for heavy rain and stronger storms to the Desert Southwest. Daily monsoonal storms will likely continue throughout next week as well. Meanwhile, a disturbance could track across northern portions of the region early to mid-week next week, potentially bringing increased activity over the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. 

Temperatures:
– Above to well above normal temperatures are forecast across the region today and tomorrow, with the strongest warm anomalies in the Pacific Northwest. 
– Cooler air will spread into the Rockies and Southwest later this week through the weekend, dropping these areas below normal while heat holds over the Pacific Northwest. 
– This warmth will spread back over more of the region early next week, while California remains cooler.
– Later next week, this warmth will start to be shunted off to the east, with cooler air settling in behind it. 

TROPICAL: 
Atlantic Ocean – Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and storms over the Eastern Atlantic. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable and could lead to a gradual development over the next several days. Tropical formation chance through 48 hours is low at near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days is low at 30 percent.

Pacific Ocean – 1. Tropical Storm Kiko will move westward out over the open Pacific Ocean throughout the week, likely becoming a hurricane today. There will be no impacts to the U.S.

Pacific Ocean – 2. A tropical wave off the coast of Mexico could produce a tropical system at some point this week. Direct impacts to the US are unlikely, but this system could lead to an increase in monsoonal moisture over the Desert Southwest this weekend. Tropical formation chance through 48 hours is medium at 60 percent and high through 7 days at 80%. 

MODEL DISCUSSION:
– High resolution guidance is used for the next 48 hours to predict timing and placement of shower and thunderstorms risks.
– Good to fair model agreement the rest of the week and into the weekend, but enough disagreement is found with the timing of the front, so a blend of the GFS/ECMWF is preferred.
– Models continue to agree on the overall pattern for next week, but there remains plenty of disagreement on timing and impacts of potential systems and fronts, so an ensemble blend remains in place for the end of the forecast period.

DTN Meteorologist: Tyrus Skaer