Stormy East, Dry West
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist along and near the Atlantic Coast today as an area of low pressure develops offshore. Meanwhile, dry conditions will prevail further west along the Gulf Coast and in the Mississippi Valley.
General Overview: HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND GULF COAST. MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURE PATTERN SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST.
EAST:
A low pressure system will develop along the East Coast, bringing rain and thunderstorms to coastal regions from the Mid-Atlantic through the Northeast on Friday and Saturday. The Florida peninsula and Gulf Coast will experience scattered thunderstorms as moisture flows northward from the Gulf of Mexico. By Saturday, a more organized area of rain and thunderstorms will develop along the Eastern Seaboard from the Carolinas northward.
As the weekend progresses, precipitation will gradually shift offshore by Sunday, though some lingering moisture may produce scattered showers along coastal areas. The pattern suggests high pressure will build into the Northeast by early next week, bringing drier conditions to much of the region.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Below normal temperatures across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, with readings 3-6°F below average. Near normal temperatures for the Southeast and Florida.
-Days 4-6: Temperatures trending closer to normal across most of the East, with slightly below normal conditions persisting in parts of the Northeast. Slightly above normal temperatures developing in parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast.
-Days 7-10: Gradual warming trend with temperatures returning to near normal or slightly above normal for most eastern areas by the end of the period.
CENTRAL:
A complex weather pattern will affect the Central regions with multiple systems moving through. Rain and thunderstorms will develop across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Friday, with some precipitation extending southward along a frontal boundary. By Saturday, a low pressure system will organize in the Northern Plains, bringing rain and thunderstorms to the Dakotas and Minnesota.
As the system progresses eastward, precipitation will spread across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region through Sunday. Meanwhile, high pressure will build across the Southern Plains, keeping conditions drier there. By early next week, another frontal system will approach from the west, potentially bringing additional precipitation chances to the Central Plains and Midwest.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Above normal temperatures across much of the Central Plains and parts of the Midwest, with readings 3-6°F above average. Near normal temperatures for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
-Days 4-6: Continued above normal temperatures for the Central and Southern Plains, with warmest anomalies (6-10°F above normal) centered over Oklahoma, Kansas, and northern Texas.
-Days 7-10: Persistent above normal temperatures for the Central Plains and South Central regions, gradually moderating toward the end of the period but still remaining 3-6°F above normal.
WEST:
The most significant weather hazard will be heavy rain and potential flash flooding across the Southwest, particularly in Arizona and New Mexico. A persistent area of low pressure will maintain periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms across these areas through the weekend. Flash flooding is possible in portions of Arizona, with rainfall amounts potentially exceeding flood thresholds.
Meanwhile, a series of systems will bring rain and mixed precipitation to the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. By Saturday and Sunday, precipitation will spread inland across Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming, with some mixed precipitation at higher elevations. The Southwest low will gradually weaken by early next week, but moisture may linger across portions of the Four Corners region.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Above normal temperatures across much of the Southwest and Rockies, with readings 3-6°F above average. Below normal temperatures for the Pacific Northwest and portions of California.
-Days 4-6: Cooling trend for the Northwest with below normal temperatures expanding across Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and northern California (3-6°F below normal). Continued above normal temperatures for the Southwest.
-Days 7-10: Below normal temperatures persisting in parts of the West Coast and Great Basin, while above normal temperatures continue across the Southwest, gradually moderating toward the end of the period.
TROPICAL:
Atlantic Basin: Tropical Storm Jerry is about 100 miles E of the northern Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. This system may potentially develop into a Hurricane in the next 24-48 hours and will bring some impacts throughout the Caribbean, including the US Virgin Islands but is expected to re-curve northeastward into the Atlantic this weekend with no significant impacts expected to the mainland US at this time.
Eastern Pacific Basin: Tropical Storm Priscilla is located off the western coast of Mexico and poses a threat to the Mexican coastline. Additionally, Tropical Storm Raymond is tracking northwestward just behind Priscilla. Neither system is expected to directly impact the continental United States, but moisture from these systems may enhance precipitation across portions of the Southwest and Gulf Coast this weekend and into next week.