Warming

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR PARTS OF THE WEST, PLAINS, NORTH/WEST GREAT LAKES, FLORIDA, AND SOME OF THE COASTAL ATLANTIC THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE KEEPS MUCH OF THE HEART OF THE MIDWEST AND MOST OF THE EAST REGIONS QUIET THIS WEEK. SOME COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR WILL REMAIN AROUND THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK WITH WARM READINGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ROCKIES AND AREAS EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST THIS WEEK. MUCH OF THE NATION RETURNS TO MILD TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS STAYING CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THE EAST COAST.

EAST: High pressure keeps the region mostly the rest of the work week. The only precipitation chances look to be daily storm chances remaining around Florida, along with some shower activity near the East Coast at times, and isolated activity along a front across the northern Great Lakes as well. Over the weekend, the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley become stormier, Florida becomes less active, and some showers/storms remain near the Carolina/Mid-Atlantic Coast. Early to middle of next week could see a disturbance drift across more of the East region with some showers and thunderstorm activity.

Temperatures:
– Most of the region remains below normal today. 
– Warmer air will nose back in from the west the rest of the week, bringing areas west of the Appalachians to above normal levels while areas east should remain a bit below normal. 
– Most areas will see above normal temperatures this weekend and into next week, but some coastal areas will remain either side of seasonal. 

CENTRAL: Portions of the Gulf Coast, Plains, and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions see areas of showers and thunderstorms the next two days with some areas of heavier to stronger storms possible in spots. By late week and more so into the weekend, activity should become most widespread across the north-central areas with less activity to dry across many areas of the south. More areas of showers and thunderstorms continue in for some into early to middle of next week as well with some of the Plains seeing the higher risks for these storm chances.

Temperatures:
– The heart of the Midwest and south areas remain below normal today, but the rest of the region will return to normal to above normal.
– Warmer conditions will continue to overspread the region the rest of the week as most of the region trends to above to even well above normal with warmest anomalies expected over the north-central region.
– These warmer than normal conditions should remain in place through the weekend and into next week.

WEST: Daily monsoonal storms are expected in and around the higher elevations of the Rocky Mountains and should even more active by late week, then maybe a bit of a break over the weekend and early next week, and then picking back up by middle of next week. Meanwhile, a disturbance off of the coast will keep shower and some thunderstorm chances in a scattered fashion across northern California, parts of the Northwest, and north/west Great Basin regions through the middle of the week. This system drifts more across the northern Rockies and High Plains late week and into the weekend, likely enhancing rain and storm chances over these areas. Another similar disturbance increases shower and storm chances once again over NorCal, parts of the Northwest, and northern Great Basin late weekend and early next week before fading as it moves further eastward.

Temperatures:
– This week will feature warmer than normal temperatures north and near/east of the Rockies with readings up to 5-10 degrees above normal for parts of Montana and Wyoming.
– Meanwhile, much of California, the western deserts, and Great Basin sees below normal temperatures this week.
– The trends will be a slow warm up over the Southwest into next week as the West region returns to near seasonal to above normal readings.

TROPICAL: 
No current concerns in the Atlantic Ocean.

Pacific Ocean – Tropical Storm Kiko continues to weaken slowly, but should maintain tropical storm strength through mid to late week. This system will also continue to move in a northwest direction this week and is expected to pass north of the main Hawaiian Islands today and into Wednesday. Impacts to Hawaii continue to decrease, but swells are still expected along east-facing exposures of the islands through mid-week, and these will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.

MODEL DISCUSSION:
– High resolution guidance is used for the next 24-48 hours for timing and placement of showers and thunderstorms.
– Models remain in good agreement through the rest of the week and into the weekend, but a blend of the GFS/ECMWF remains in place to settle some timing and magnitude of a few storm systems.
– Overall, the models remain in fair agreement for next week, but enough disagreement remains that an ensemble blend is preferred through the end of the period.