DTN Canola Analysis & Recommendations

10/14/2025

**Note To Readers**

Due to the ongoing government shutdown, updated Commitments of Traders data will not be included in DTN’s weekly Six Factors Strategy update until the CFTC report resumes its normal Friday afternoon publication. Thank you for your understanding.

There was a new recommendation on June 17, 2025, for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons.

POSITIONS

(6/17/2025)

2025-26

Made a forward sale of 20% of 2025 canola production on June 17, 2025, with November canola trading near C$740.00. 80% of 2025 canola production remains unsold.

2024-25

Made a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production on June 17, 2025, for June delivery with July canola trading near C$745.00. 25% of 2024 canola production remains unsold.

(4/22/2025)

2024-25

Made a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production on April 22, 2025, when July canola was near C$673.00. 50% of 2024-25 canola production remains unsold.

(5/31/2024)

2024-25

Made a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production on May 31 when November canola was near C$678.00.

(1/26/2024)

2023-24

Sold 50% of production as a cash sale for May delivery.

(1/5/2024)

2023-24:

Sold 50% of production as a cash sale for May delivery.

2022-23

March 9, 2023: Sold 60% of production as a cash sale.

Dec. 19, 2022: Sold 40% of production as a cash sale.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT

The trend in November canola is down for now. The dry start to the 2025 growing season in western Canada gave way to much improved conditions by mid-summer, propelling yields which are expected to rise 6.5% year over year as of the most recent AAFC report. Canola harvest in Saskatchewan was reported to be 89% complete as of October 6. From a demand standpoint, canola exports as of the period ending October 5 are 59% below the same point in 2024, due to the EV related tariffs implemented by China on Canadian canola seed but also partly due to the tight stocks situation through late summer leaving the pipeline thinly supplied. Domestic crush demand for canola on the other hand is up roughly 7.4% from the same point last year. November canola is currently a neutral, Type 3 market.

DAILY NOTE

November canola futures closed up C$8.20 on Tuesday to C$615.60. Canola remained the leader to the upside throughout the session as traders reacted to the possibility that Ottawa could reconsider the tariffs on Chinese EV imports. Following the offer by the Chinese ambassador to remove tariffs on canola if Canada did the same on EV’s, there has been a strong push from Western Canada, including from the premiers of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, to take them up on it. With the rally, it appears as though the market could close over the 25-day moving average soon if progress can be made. Such a sign of strength would confirm the divergence bottom formation that’s been forming on canola’s daily chart, signaling a more meaningful bounce. Canola futures were closed on Monday, October 13, in observance of the Canadian Thanksgiving Holiday. The trend in canola futures is lower for now.

RECOMMENDATIONS*

(6/17/2025)

2024-25 and 2025-26:

We are recommending a sale of 25% of 2024-25 canola production for June delivery with July canola futures trading near C$745/mt. We are also recommending selling the first 20% of conservatively expected 2025 canola production with November canola futures trading near C$740/mt. We are recommending these sales, not because we have lost faith in the bullish fundamentals of strong demand amid tight supplies and concerns over new crop production, but as part of a disciplined marketing strategy that rewards market rallies with incremental sales. With July canola now over $180/mt above the March low and November canola now $160/mt above its March low, both canola and soybean oil are looking overbought and due for a correction, and the best hope for widespread rainfall this spring in extended forecasts — failing to do so would not be appropriate. With 25% of 2024-25 production remaining, we expect to look for a rally to $800/mt resistance to make the final sales recommendation for old crop — always on the lookout for a potential need to abandon the strategy.

(4/22/2025)

2024-25:

We are recommending a sale of 25% of 2024-25 canola production for April/May delivery with July canola currently trading above C$670/mt. We are recommending the sale, not because we have lost faith in the bullish fundamentals of strong demand amid tight supplies, but as part of a disciplined marketing strategy that rewards market rallies with incremental sales. With July canola now over $100/mt above the March low, basis levels improving by over $20/mt and some profit taking at February highs being seen recently — failing to do so would not be appropriate. With 50% of 2024-25 production remaining, we expect to look for a break above resistance to make additional sales this spring.

(5/31/2024)

2024-25:

Take advantage of the recent spring rally and make a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production at this time. November canola is trading near C$678.00.

(1/26/2024)

2023-24:

Oilseed and vegetable oil markets continue to break down with the March contract returning close to the January low as prospects of a large Brazil soybean crop weigh on prices. Sell 50% of 2023-24 canola for May delivery, focusing on crusher sales wherever possible. The May is close to $620/mt.

**

*DTN recommendations are general in nature and are not intended to be specific for any particular person or farming business. The buying and selling of futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone. DTN accepts no responsibility for actual trades made.