DTN Canola Six Factors

TREND: The trend for November canola is down for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial traders were net-short 8,438 contracts of canola as of September 23, net-sellers of 8,562 contracts from the previous week’s net-long position during the CFTC reporting period.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial traders held a net-long position of 10,117 contracts of canola as of September 23, the most recent CFTC report. November canola is currently priced C$15.20 below the January futures contract, a carry structure that was wider over the past week and in fact the highest degree of carry for the November and January contracts to date.

SEASONAL INDEX: Canola prices tend to peak between December and February and bottom in July or August.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The price of front month (November) canola closed the most recent week at the 13th percentile, an inexpensive location for buyers within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: The three-month price volatility for front month (November) canola held at 10% as canola prices traded slightly higher on the week, snapping a streak of three consecutive lower weeks.