DTN Daily Ethanol Comments

In Oct. 10 compliance credits trade, 2025 D6 renewable identification numbers (RINs) were up $0.0025 at $1.0025, and 2024 D6 RINs were up $0.0075 at $0.9925. The 2025 D4 RINs were up $0.0070 at $1.0300, and the 2024 D4 RINs were up $0.0075 at $0.9925.

Spot ethanol cash prices were lower, with New York Harbor down $0.0100 at $1.8925, prompt-delivered ethanol to Kinder Morgan’s Argo terminal in Chicago was down $0.0050 at $1.8160, and Chicago rail via Rule 11 was down $0.0050 at $1.7675.

The Daily Ethanol State Average cash price is $2.1188 per gallon, up 0.0016 versus the prior trading day.

December corn closed up 2 1/4 cents at $4.13 and March corn was up 2 cents at $4.29 1/4, closing higher and following wheat today. Weekly inspections came out this morning from the USDA with another strong inspections report for corn. USDA reported inspections totaled 44.5 mb for the week ending October 9. Total inspections for 2025-26 are now at 313 mb, up 65% from the previous year. USDA is estimating corn exports to total 2.975 bb in 2025-26, up 5% from the previous year. Corn inspections in 2025-26 are running well ahead of USDA’s estimated pace at a time when USDA’s estimate of corn ending stocks is 45% higher than the previous five-year average. Wheat inspections also had a good report last week, showing total inspections for 2025-26 are now at 392.0 mb, up 18% from the previous year. Ask for cash wheat, prices are still good, especially with harvest going on, and the PNW was bidding a 10-cent carry between now and the first half of December last night.

NYMEX WTI November futures contract was down $0.79 at $58.70 per barrel (bbl), while the November futures contract was down $0.80 at $58.27 per bbl, closing lower after the International Energy Agency raised its oversupply forecast for next year.

“Oil futures plumbed fresh five-month lows after the International Energy Agency raised its oversupply forecast for next year to an unprecedented 4 million bpd, after foreseeing production rapidly outpacing demand growth. In Tuesday (10/14) morning trade, NYMEX-traded WTI crude for November delivery fell $1.43 to $58.06 bbl, after dropping to $57.68 earlier for its lowest level since May. ICE Brent for December delivery dropped $1.44 to $61.88 bbl, after a five-month low at $61.50,” said DTN Refined Fuels Analyst Karim Bastati this morning. “IEA’s latest oil market report contained a 300,000-bpd upward revision to 2026 supply growth, now estimated at 2.4 million bpd, while leaving its 2026 demand growth estimate unchanged. The revision was based on the pace of recent OPEC production hikes, which the Paris-based energy watchdog is expecting to continue well into 2026.”

November RBOB closed down $0.0152 per gallon at $1.8286, and December RBOB was up $0.0153 per gallon at $1.7823, closing lower with crude oil today. The Oct. 14 AAA national average gas prices are $3.076 per gallon for regular, $3.657 for diesel and $2.447 for E85.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

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