DTN Closing Grain Comments
Row-crop futures were mixed Tuesday with grains trading higher while soybean futures fell on the most recent escalation of the U.S.-China trade war as China hit U.S. subsidiaries of a South Korean shipbuilding company with sanctions. Data out from the Brazilian National Supply Company (Conab) also served as a reminder to traders of record soybean supplies in Brazil and subsequently what have been record-setting exports as well that have sustained into the typical U.S. sales window due to the ongoing dispute with China. Outside markets were mixed with the U.S. dollar seemingly feeling for a momentary ceiling near 2-month highs which aided wheat markets Tuesday. Meanwhile, energy markets were lower on the China-U.S. shipping news but did manage to bounce off daily lows following a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell which hinted at a slowing of the 3-year effort by the Federal Reserve to reduce its asset holdings, a move which would work to effectively pressure interest rates and stimulate growth. Stock indices reversed from early losses following Powell's comments.
(DTN illustration by Nick Scalise)
GENERAL COMMENTS:
December corn closed up 2 1/4 cents and March corn was up 2 cents. November soybeans closed down 1 1/4 cents and January soybeans were down 1 cent. December KC wheat closed up 7 1/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 3 1/2 cents, December MIAX Minneapolis wheat was up 2 cents.
The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.22 at 99.05. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 398.0 points at 46,696.0. December gold is up $31.90 at $4,164.90, December silver is up $0.30 at $50.73 and December copper is down $0.1215. November crude oil is down $0.69 at $58.80, November ultra-low sulfur diesel is down $0.0488, November RBOB gasoline is down $0.0127 and November natural gas is down $0.088.
CORN:
December corn futures traded 2 1/4 cents higher Tuesday to $4.13. March futures were up 2 cents to $4.29 1/4. The corn market snapped a 3-day losing streak on Tuesday, finding technical support on a brief test below $4.10 on December futures and managing to close near the high of the day. The bullish target is the 50-day moving average at $4.15 1/4 currently, while the bearish target is in the $4.00-$4.05 area.
USDA released its weekly grain export inspections report early Tuesday, reporting corn inspections to date at 313 million bushels (mb), up 65% from 2024. This was a refreshing reminder to the corn market for Tuesday that overall demand for U.S. corn remains stellar, especially at these attractive prices.
In world corn news for Tuesday, Conab Brazil estimated the 2025-26 corn crop to be 138.6 million metric tons (mmt), down less than 1% from the agency’s estimate and up from the 131-mmt estimate from USDA in the most recent WASDE. These estimates are obviously very early as the majority of Brazil’s 2026 corn crop won’t even be planted until February and March; but it does raise some concerns to U.S. exports with the agency also seeing a 16% growth in export business from the prior year.
The DTN National Corn Index finished Monday at $3.70. Tuesday’s futures close and implied corn basis of 41 cents under the December board would indicate the index on Tuesday afternoon to be near $3.72.
SOYBEANS:
November soybeans fell 1 1/4 cents Tuesday to $10.06 1/2. January soybean futures were down 1 cent to $10.24 1/4. November futures briefly tested the late-September low but managed to bounce off this level just below $10.02 for the third straight session. Still, soybean futures were unable to gain much traction to the upside for Tuesday, likely still pressured by heightened tensions between the U.S. and China and large Brazilian estimates released Tuesday morning.
For soybean export inspections, USDA reported the total for the 2025-26 marketing year-to-date to be 149 mb, now down 26% from the previous year, a pace that continues to decline. Inspections tend to hit their marketing year peak over the October and November window, which paints a very concerning picture for demand currently. This is compounded by the lack of weekly sales reports which makes it difficult to track total shipments as well as sales pace amid China’s boycott of U.S. soybeans.
Conab Brazil announced Tuesday they expect the country to harvest another record-breaking soybean crop in 2026, estimated at 177.64 mmt. This would be up from the agency’s 171.5 mmt estimate of the 2025 crop (USDA at 169 mmt) and up from USDA’s estimate of a 175 mmt crop in 2025-26 as estimated in the September WASDE report. The agency is also expecting exports to grow to 112 mmt over the next marketing year, a product of high production as well as recent decreased competition from the U.S. for Chinese business.
The DTN National Soybean Index finished Monday at $9.32.
Tuesday’s futures close and implied soybean basis of 76 cents under the November board would indicate the index on Tuesday afternoon to be near $9.33.
WHEAT:
December Kansas City futures rose 7 1/4 cents Tuesday to $4.88 1/2. Minneapolis and Chicago markets were also higher. The wheat market finally gained a spark, shaking off yet another contract low set early Tuesday and ultimately finishing near the highs of the day in what was just the third positive session for the December KC contract through the month of October thus far. The bullish target is the 20-day moving average just below $5.00, while traders may look to retest support in the low $4.80s in coming days.
USDA reported that as of Oct. 9, wheat export inspections totaled 392 mb, up 18% from the previous season, and ahead of the pace needed to hit the USDA goal. A steady inspections report combined with a seemingly top-heavy U.S. dollar were certainly supportive of U.S. wheat futures on Tuesday in combination with technical buying amid five-year lows.
For winter wheat seedings, mostly dry conditions over the past two weeks have likely allowed for steady progress to be made; without official USDA estimates my best guess is the crop is somewhere near 65% to 70% planted based on recent history. Thus far, drought conditions in the eastern and northwestern winter wheat areas have gone relatively disregarded by traders, as the Southern Plains have gotten by on good pre-planting precipitation and good soil moisture levels thus far. This will certainly be something to monitor over the next two weeks with above-average temperatures and few forecasted rain events currently until around day 10 of the 15-day outlook.
The DTN National HRW Index finished Monday at $4.11, while the DTN National HRS Index was $5.11. Tuesday’s futures closes and implied basis of 70 cents under the December board for HRW, and 40 cents under the December board for HRS, would indicate the indices for Tuesday afternoon to be near $4.18 and $5.14, respectively.
Rhett Montgomery can be reached at Rhett.Montgomery@dtn.com
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