DTN Midday Grain Comments

DTN Midday Grain Comments

MARKET SUMMARY:

Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 5 to 6 cents lower; wheat futures are 3 to 6 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is firmer with the S&P 20 points higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is 28 points higher. The interest rate products are firmer. Energy trade is mixed with crude .40 lower and natural gas .05 higher. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. Precious metals are sharply lower with gold 30.00 higher.

CORN:

Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with some light, two-sided action early with spillover pressure from soybeans and wheat along with little other fresh news. Ethanol margins remain fairly stable with blenders seeing some pressure from the shift to cheaper fall blends. The forecast looks to stay cooler this week with warmer temps to return next week to boost early harvest. The weekly export sales report is delayed until Friday with weekly sales expected to be in the 600,000 to 900,000 metric ton (mt) range. Basis should continue to drift lower into harvest. On the December chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.08 1/2 is support with the July high at $4.30 the next level of resistance.

SOYBEANS:

Soybean futures are 5 to 6 cents lower at midday with light selling continuing as oil slides back to the low end of the summer range with early harvest fast approaching. Meal is narrowly mixed and oil is 5 to 15 points lower. The forecast looks to be drier to the east with cooler temps giving way to warmer temps next week to push more acres to the finish. Basis will likely remain flat to soft in the short term. Weekly export sales are expected to be in the 300,000 to 500,000 mt range with better product sales. On the November chart, resistance is the 20-day moving average as support at $10.35, which we closed below Wednesday, with the Lower Bollinger Band at $9.98 as support.

WHEAT:

Wheat futures are 3 to 6 cents lower with fresh lows coming in again in broad selling with Chicago the downside leader as we return to deeply oversold conditions. Wet weather on the Plains will likely slow early planting while spring wheat harvest should continue to wind down. MATIF wheat is scoring lows as well as it gets deeply oversold despite the euro weakness. Weekly export sales are expected to be in the 350,000 to 550,000 mt range. On the KC December chart, resistance is the 20-day moving average at $5.23, with the fresh low at $5.01 3/4 as support.

David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

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