DTN HRS Analysis and Recommendations
10/14/2025
**Note To Readers**
Due to the ongoing government shutdown, updated Commitments of Traders data will not be included in DTN’s weekly Six Factors Strategy update until the CFTC report resumes its normal Friday afternoon publication. Thank you for your understanding.
The most recent recommendation was made June 18, 2025 (see Recommendations below).
POSITIONS
**Note on 2024/25 Crop Sales**
On December 21 the U.S. Congress passed the American Relief Act of 2025 which included $10B in economic aid to producers. The estimated per acre wheat payment of $30.69 equals a per bushel payment of approximately 60 cents per bushel of wheat based on the USDA’s 2024 national yield estimate. Final USDA payments may differ slightly from the early $30.69 per acre estimate.
2025-26: Sold 25% of 2025 HRS production on June 18, 2025, when September Minneapolis futures were trading near $6.60 and December Minneapolis futures were near $6.77; 50% of 2025 HRS production remains unsold.
2025-26: Sold the first 25% of 2025 HRS production on June 2, 2025, when September Minneapolis wheat was trading near $6.45.
2025-26: Sold the first 25% of 2025 HRS wheat production when September Minneapolis wheat was trading near $6.45.
2024-25: Sold the remaining 75% of 2024 HRS wheat production on June 2, 2025 when July Minneapolis was near $6.33.
2024-25: Sold the first 25% of 2024 HRS wheat production on May 29, 2024 when July Minneapolis was near $7.56.
2023-24: Sold the final 25% of 2023 HRS wheat production on May 7, 2024, when July Minneapolis was near $7.19.
2023-24: Sold another 50% of 2023 HRS wheat production on April 26, 2024, when May Minneapolis wheat was near $6.97.
2023-24: Sold the first 25% of 2023 HRS wheat production on April 24, 2024, when May Minneapolis wheat was near $6.76.
2022-23: Sold the remaining 50% of 2022 HRS wheat production on July 20, 2023, when September Mpls. wheat was near $9.10.
2022-23: Sold 50% of 2022 HRS wheat production on June 23, 2023, when July Mpls. wheat was near $8.74.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
MIAX Minneapolis spring wheat futures fell sharply through the most recent week, along with winter wheat futures after USDA increased their 2025 U.S. all wheat production estimate by 3% (although spring wheat production fell year over year) in the September Annual Small Grains Summary. Minneapolis wheat remains a neutral, Type 3 market.
DAILY NOTE
December MIAX Minneapolis wheat finished up .0200 cents on Tuesday after testing the contract low, settling at $5.5350, bouncing on better volume. The trend for Minneapolis wheat is still down.
RECOMMENDATIONS*
(6/18/2025)
2025-26:
With September Minneapolis futures having rallied over 70 cents from mid-May lows, we recommend selling an additional 25% of 2025 HRS production. Sell versus the September or December board depending on your local choices. If storage is an option, sell versus the December board to pick up an additional 17 cents of board carry for delivery later in fall 2025. At the time of this recommendation, September MIAX Minneapolis futures were trading near $6.60 and December futures were near $6.77.
(6/02/25)
2025-26:
With new crop September Minneapolis wheat having rallied more than 60 cents per bushel from the low, take advantage of the strength to sell the first 25% of 2025 HRS production. At the time, September Minneapolis was trading near $6.45 per bushel.
(6/02/25)
2024-25:
With July Minneapolis wheat having rallied over 60 cents per bushel from the low, take advantage of the move higher to sell the remaining 75% of 2024 HRS production. At the time, July Minneapolis wheat was trading near $6.33.
(5/29/24)
2024-25:
With new crop Minneapolis September wheat having rallied nearly $1.30 just since early April, take advantage of the move higher to sell the first 25% of the 2024 HRS wheat production. At the time, September Minneapolis wheat is trading near $7.56. Sell versus the September or December futures depending on your local choices.
(5/07/24)
2023-24:
With July Minneapolis wheat having rallied over 85 cents in the last three weeks, take advantage of the recent rally and sell the final 25% of 2023 HRS wheat production at this time. July Minneapolis wheat is trading near $7.22.
*DTN recommendations are general in nature and are not intended to be specific for any particular person or farming business. The buying and selling of futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone. DTN accepts no responsibility for actual trades made.