DTN HRS Six Factors

TREND: The trend for September Minneapolis wheat is down.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercials in Minneapolis wheat are net-short 22,805 contracts, a decrease of 1249 contracts over the week ending Sept. 23.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: CFTC data showed commercials in Minneapolis wheat net-long 22,436 contracts as of Sept. 23, an increase of 1,227 contracts from the previous week. The December contract is priced 20 1/4 cents below the March and is a bearish indication of commercial demand.

SEASONAL INDEX: The seasonal influence in spring wheat is weak, but prices tend to peak in late May and bottom somewhere from late September to late November.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The most active Minneapolis wheat contract (Dec) fell to the 4th percentile, a very inexpensive location within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility fell to 7% after December Minneapolis wheat ended the week lower.