Cotton Awaits WASDE

The cotton market is slightly lower today, still apprehensive with what sort of numbers USDA may publish in its supply-demand update. Some of that uneasiness comes from Thursday’s less-than-ebullient export sales. Traders will also key in on the CFTC update this afternoon.

Today at noon EDT, USDA will issue its September WASDE. The average trade guess for U.S. 2025/26 cotton production is 13.54 million bales (range 13.00-14.25 million). That would be up from 13.20 million seen in August. Domestic exports are anticipated at 12.06 million versus 12.00 million, and U.S. ending stocks are expected at 3.90 million bales 3.60 million in August. World cotton production for 2025/26 is expected to come in around 116.46 million bales versus 116.62 in August, while world ending stocks are expected at 73.59 million compared to 73.91 million last month.

Also, today at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitment of Traders data. Last week saw the managed-money funds sell-short an additional 6,438 positions, swelling their overall net short carry to 66,000-plus contracts. Their record short position is shy of 80,000 contracts.

There are reports, mainly from Chinese news outlets, that top U.S. and Chinese negotiators have been in contact, possibly laying the groundwork for an in-person meeting between Trump and Xi. President Trump will be attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Conference in Seoul, South Korea in late October.

The U.S. dollar is inching higher today, after weakening with the surge in U.S. jobless claims and a modest tick up in the CPI. Thursday, saw the biggest weekly increase in the number of jobless benefits in four years. That data overshadowed the CPI (consumer inflation) data for August, which showed prices rising at the fastest pace in seven months, but still in line with expectations.

Daily chart support for December cotton stands at 66.15 cents and 65.80 cents, with resistance at 67.10 cents and 67.60 cents. Friday morning’s estimated volume is 4,055 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 890-7780.