Corn, Soy Futures Show Life After Prices Test Chart Support
Soybean and corn futures moved higher at midweek, recovering from selling pressure to begin the week, with both markets dropping below key chart support in recent session which encouraged bargain buyers on Wednesday. Wheat futures traded lower for most of the morning before rallying back to post a fourth straight higher session on the KC board, still supported by falling crop conditions in the Central and Southern U.S. Plains. News regarding the conflict in the Middle East was slim on Wednesday, with regional countries pushing the U.S. and Iran to extend their ceasefire agreement and restart negotiations. Otherwise, the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, with the Wall Street Journal reporting that 15 vessels have transited the Strait since Monday, compared to 130 per day on average under normal circumstances.
(DTN illustration by Nick Scalise)
GENERAL COMMENTS:
May corn closed up 8 1/4 cents and July corn was up 8 cents. May soybeans closed up 9 cents and July soybeans were up 10 1/2 cents. May KC wheat closed up 2 3/4 cents, May Chicago wheat was up 1 3/4 cents, May MIAX Minneapolis wheat was up 1 1/2 cents.
The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.06 at 98.06. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 136.0 points at 48,619.0. June gold is down $31.90 at $4,818.20, May silver is down $0.14 at $79.39 and May copper is up $0.010. May crude oil is down $0.02 at $91.26, May ultra-low sulfur diesel is up $0.1314, June RBOB gasoline is up $0.0350 and May natural gas is up $0.011.
CORN:
May corn futures jumped 8 1/4 cents on Wednesday to $4.51 1/4. July futures were up 8 cents to $4.60 1/2. The corn market found technical support Wednesday, rallying back above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages on May futures, to the highest close since April 6. Monday’s close on the May futures represented roughly a 70% retracement of the contract back toward 2026 lows (set in January). Traders may be satisfied with this level of liquidation for now with the vast majority of planting still ahead and recent price action and fertilizer concerns suggesting a further acreage shift away from corn may occur as well. It will be important on Friday to check in on the most recent Commitments of Traders report to see where the noncommercial net-long position stands, as it was still north of 290,000 futures contracts as of last Tuesday, April 7.
The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that last week’s ethanol production averaged 1.120 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 4,000 bpd from the prior week. Production has outperformed seasonal expectations through April thus far, typically a time of year where production slides as plants take maintenance while producers are busy with fieldwork. Year-to-date ethanol production is now running 2% ahead of the same point in 2025 (through the corn marketing year). Ethanol margins remain stellar, with USDA reporting a $2.95 gross margin in Iowa, the highest weekly average since November 2022 and about $1.50 ahead of this point last year.
In world corn news, the situation in Brazil is growing more crucial, with not much for rainfall expected over the next week and the last week of April featuring isolated fronts. The wet season in Brazil typically ends in early May but that may have started early this year and be problematic for safrinha corn. Meanwhile, heavy rainfall in Argentina is likely no longer much benefit to the corn crop, and more of a hinderance to harvesting efforts. However, this crop will be important to monitor given the large disagreement between agencies, with 15 million metric ton (mmt) gap between USDA and the Rosario Grain Exchange as one example.
The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $4.06. Wednesday’s futures close and Tuesday’s national average corn basis of 37 cents under the May board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $4.15.
SOYBEANS:
May soybean futures rose 9 cents on Wednesday, closing at $11.67. July futures were up 10 1/2 cents to $11.83 1/4. The soybean market rose by double digits on most contracts, reclaiming lost ground after successfully holding support after closing below the 50-day moving average ($11.62) for May futures for the first time in over two months on Tuesday. Upside resistance is seen near $11.75 currently.
The soybean market got a boost on Wednesday morning after President Trump said China had agreed not to supply weapons to Iran. The potential for a fallout of U.S.-China relations had caused anxiety within the market to begin the week, especially when President Trump threatened tariff action against China if they were to materially support Iran. In products markets, both soybean meal and oil moved higher on Wednesday as well, with meal marking a fifth day higher out of the past six and posting the highest close of 2026 thus far for the May contract. NOPA released their soybean crush report on Wednesday, reporting that members crushed 226.2 million bushels (mb) of soybeans in March, the second highest monthly total ever. This suggests total U.S. crush will fall near to 232 mb when USDA releases their next Fats and Oils report in early May. If true, cumulative crush for the marketing year thus far (September through March) would be 8.9% ahead of the same point in 2025. USDA raised their crush forecast in the April WASDE to 2.610 billion bushels (bb), a 6.7% year over year increase. Crush margins are spectacular currently, with May board crush north of $4.00 and record high.
World soybean news remains quiet, with record production all but confirmed out of Brazil. Brazil export offers remain a 70 cent per bushel or so discount to U.S. offers, though that gap does tend to close through the summer months. The jury is still out on where Argentina’s crop will fall, but it is expected to be a three-year low at 48 mmt by USDA. Meanwhile, world reserves are expected to remain near record high through 2026.
The DTN National Soybean Index finished Tuesday at $10.91. Wednesday’s futures close and Tuesday’s national average soybean basis of 67 cents under the May board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $11.00.
WHEAT:
May Kansas City futures were up 2 3/4 cents on Wednesday to $6.25 1/2. July futures were up 2 1/4 cents to $6.38 1/2. The wheat markets shook off a sluggish early tone to trade higher, as buying interest remains amid the standstill at the Strait of Hormuz for crucial fertilizer trade, and a growing concern for U.S. winter wheat production amid lingering drought. Spillover strength from higher soybean and corn futures likely also played a role, as the three-day, 35 cent rally in May KC futures puts the contract back within striking distance of 2026 highs.
Rainfall chances for areas in much need of moisture such as western Kansas, eastern Colorado, Nebraska, and South Dakota was added to the 15-day outlook Wednesday but not slated to arrive until the final days of April. At this rate, given the recovery of wheat futures throughout Wednesday’s session, traders may be displaying a need to “see it to believe it” after forecasted totals have consistently disappointed over the winter. For world wheat, news is slim currently as the market will have to wait and see on other 2026 crops, but conditions are reported as mostly good across the E.U. as well as the Black Sea. The first sign of concern for 2026-27 wheat supplies may come via Australia, where conditions are very dry and fertilizer costs high just ahead of planting for the next crop.
The DTN National HRW Index finished Tuesday at $5.52, while the DTN National HRS Index was $6.02. Wednesday’s futures close and Tuesday’s national average soybean basis of 70 cents under the July board for HRW, and 50 cents under the July board for HRS, would indicate the indices for Wednesday afternoon to be near $5.55 and $6.04, respectively.
Rhett Montgomery can be reached at Rhett.Montgomery@dtn.com
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