DTN Corn Six Factors

TREND: The trend for December corn is sideways.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial corn traders held a net-short futures position of 51,186 contracts as of September 23, an increase of 15,017 contracts during the CFTC reporting period as traders turned to selling amid technical pressure in the corn market.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial corn traders held a net-long position of 79,646 contracts as of Sept. 23, the most recent CFTC report. The December 2025 contract is priced 13 3/4 cents lower than the March 2026 contract, a spread that narrowed another 2 cents on the week on ideas of lower U.S. corn yields and very strong nearby demand. DTN’s National Corn Index implies a corn basis of 41 cents under the December board, even on the week and still the fourth weakest over the past decade for mid-October.

SEASONAL INDEX: Corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom in early October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The front-month (December) corn futures contract rose over the most recent week to the 13th percentile, still an attractive location for buyers within the 5-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility for the most active (December) corn contract fell to 3% after prices traded higher on the week, snapping a streak of four consecutive weeks lower.