DTN Soybean Analysis and Recommendations
10/14/2025
**Note To Readers**
Due to the ongoing government shutdown, updated Commitments of Traders data will not be included in DTN’s weekly Six Factors Strategy update until the CFTC report resumes its normal Friday afternoon publication. Thank you for your understanding.
The most recent Recommendation was on Aug. 5, 2025. See Recommendations below.
POSITIONS
**Note on 2024/25 Crop Sales**
On December 21 the U.S. Congress passed the American Relief Act of 2025 which included $10B in economic aid to producers. The estimated per acre soybean payment of $29.50 equals a per bushel payment of approximately 57 cents per bushel of soybeans based on the USDA’s 2024 national yield estimate. Final USDA payments may differ slightly from the early $29.50 per acre estimate.
2025-26: Liquidated half of previous put protection at 3 5/8 cents, locking in a 16 3/8-cent cost for hedge on 25% of 2025 production. Sold 15% of 2025-26 soybean production with November soybeans trading near $10.53, for a net hedge very near to $10.37 futures, and a cash price likely near to $9.70, depending on fills.
2025-26: Purchased $9.80 November 2025 soybean puts, bid at 20 cents per bushel, representing 50% of 2025 soybean production.
2025-26: Sold first 20% of 2025-26 soybean production with November soybean futures trading near $10.55.
2024-25: 100% sold on 2024/25 soybean production. Average cash sale approximately $10.48. 2024-25: Sold the final 25% of 2024 soybean production on Jan. 6, 20, with cash soybeans near $9.43.
2024-25: Sold 50% of 2024 production on Nov. 11, 2024, with cash soybeans near $9.67. Factoring in previous soybean put protection makes this a $10.20 sale. 25% of 2024 production remains unsold.
2024-25: Liquidated (sold) the remaining November 2024 soybean puts on July 19, 2024, representing 75% of 2024 soybean production with prices bid near 71 cents.
2024-25: Sold November 2024 soybean puts representing 25% of 2024 soybean production with prices bid near 32 cents.
2024-25: Made a forward sale of 25% of 2024 soybean production on May 28, 2024. November soybeans were near $12.08.
2024-25: Purchased November 2024 $11.00 soybean puts for 100% of 2024 soybean production on May 24, 2024, trading near 18 cents a bushel.
2023-24: Made the final sale of 25% of 2023 soybean production for May delivery on Jan.11, 2024, when May soybeans were near $12.51.
2023-24: Made a third forward sale of 25% of 2023 soybean production for May delivery on Jan. 2, 2024, when May soybeans were near $12.79.
2023-24: Made a second forward sale of 25% of 2023 soybean production March 15, 2023. November soybeans were near $13.31 at the time of recommendation.
2023-24: Made a forward sale of 25% of 2023 soybean production Feb. 28, 2023. November soybeans were priced near $13.56.
2022-23: Sold the final 25% of 2022 soybean production Feb. 28, 2023. March soybeans were priced near $14.93.
2022-23: Sold the third 25% of 2022 soybean production Jan. 3, 2023, for delivery in May. May soybeans were priced near $15.07.
2022-23: Sold the second 25% of 2022 soybean production Dec. 15, 2022, for delivery in May. May soybeans were priced near $14.79.
2022-23: Sold the first 25% of 2022 soybean production Dec. 9, 2022, for delivery in May. May soybeans were priced near $14.94.
Average 2022-23 sale price = 75% at $14.93 (May) and 25% at $14.93 (Mar).
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
The trend in November soybean futures is sideways for now. Recent firming in soybean futures spreads and soybean basis through harvest suggests the possibility of lower yields than the market was expecting, or a surge in demand through low prices at harvest, or some combination of both. However, this bullish argument is countered by ongoing demand concerns stemming from the U.S. trading relationship with China which has seemingly and abruptly deteriorated through the most recent week, with China ramping up export controls on rare-earth exports, and hitting back as U.S. port fees with fees of their own on U.S. ships. President Trump responded with threats of higher tariffs, as well as potentially canceling the planned meeting with China’s President Xi at the end of October. China still has zero U.S. soybean purchases on the books for 2025-26, with recent developments suggesting this shouldn’t be expected to change anytime soon. Soybeans are currently still seen as a neutral, Type 3 market.
DAILY NOTE
November soybean futures closed down 1 1/4 cents to $10.06 1/2. January futures were down 1 cent to $10.24 1/4. Soybean futures fell on Tuesday after early reports were that China has unveiled further sanctions against the U.S. shipping industry. Pressure was compounded with the release of the October Conab Brazil crop report, which estimated next year’s soybean crop to be another record at 177.6 million metric tons, with a subsequent rise in exports expected as well. Despite these bearish news flashes, November soybeans closed over a nickel above the daily low, with traders clearly not convinced that the current soybean situation warrants a price below $10.00. The trend in November soybeans is sideways for now.
RECOMMENDATIONS*
(8/25/2025)
2025-26:
With the surprising cut to 2025 soybean acreage by the USDA in the August WASDE and subsequent rally in prices, consider rewarding the rally thus far with a 15% forward sale of 2025 soybean production. November soybeans are trading near $10.53 at the time of this recommendation. Simultaneously, unwind half of the previous put protection (representing 25% of production), with $9.80 November 2025 puts asking price near 3 5/8 cents, locking in a price of 16 3/8 cents for that previous hedge. Based on the DTN National Soybean Index, net cash for the sale should be near to $9.70 depending on fills.
(8/5/2025)
2025-26:
With November soybeans falling below $10.00 and the downside risk to the market growing due to poor demand from China as well as the potential for large yields, consider protecting an additional 50% of 2025 soybean production by purchasing $9.80 November 2025 soybean puts, currently bid near 20 cents per bushel. This will improve upon the floor offered by crop insurance currently, while also leaving the upside open to a rally should August and September weather prove detrimental to U.S. production.
(6/23/2025)
2025-26:
With November soybeans trading near 2025 highs last week but rapidly reversing off those highs, I recommend rewarding the markets rally off April lows thus far with a sale of the first 20% of new-crop soybeans. I remain cautiously optimistic regarding the soybean fundamental situation in 2025 and 2026; however, the seasonal tendency for prices to peak in summer cannot be ignored, as well as the potential for a bearish surprise in the June 30 acreage report, which further supports my belief that a sale here is appropriate. We will remain vigilant and prepared for a potential resumption of the rally to new 2025 highs. November soybean futures were near $10.55 at the time of this recommendation.
(01/06/25)
2024-25:
With March soybean prices rallying roughly 57 cents from their contract lows in mid-December, and with a very — if not record — large South American crop entering the world market by March, I recommend taking advantage of the rally and selling the final 25% of 2024 soybean production. March soybean futures are near $10.01, and the DTN National Soybean Index is near $9.43. Factoring in the previous profit from put protection makes this a $9.96 cash sale. As always work with your local grain buyer for any potential basis improvements.
11/11/2024)
2024-25:
With January soybean prices roughly 45 cents off their late-October lows, reward this rally with a cash sale of 50% of 2024 production. The DTN National Soybean Cash Index is at roughly $9.67, but basis has been gaining strength, so work with your grain buyer for a potential cash improvement. Adding in net profit of 53 cents on the previous 2024 puts equals a net of $10.20 cash for this sale. This leaves 25% of 2024 soybeans unsold for the season, in which we will closely monitor South American weather for any rally potential.
(7/19/2024)
2024-25:
With soybean prices extremely cheap from a fundamental view, the selling may not be over, but take advantage of the recent drop to liquidate (sell) the remaining November soybean $11 put options, purchased on May 24. Prices are currently bid near 71 cents.
(6/18/2024)
2024-25:
With 25% of new-crop soybeans forward sold on May 28, liquidate November 2024 soybean puts, representing 25% of 2024 soybean production that were purchased on May 24. The puts are currently bid near 32 cents. DTN still has puts in place to protect 75% of 2024 soybean production.
(5/28/2024)
2024-25:
Take advantage of the modest three-month rally in soybeans and make a forward sale of 25% of 2024 soybean production at this time. November soybeans were trading near $12.08 at the time of the recommendation.
(5/24/2024)
2024-25:
With crop insurance offering a much lower level of price protection in 2024, purchase November 2024 $11.00 soybean puts for 100% of 2024 production at this time, currently trading near 18 cents a bushel. The purchase will effectively raise the level of downside protection, while leaving potential for upside gain. Work with your broker to get good fills.
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*DTN recommendations are general in nature and are not intended to be specific for any particular person or farming business. The buying and selling of futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone. DTN accepts no responsibility for actual trades made.