DTN Soybean Six Factors

TREND: The trend for November soybeans is sideways for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial soybean traders held a net-long futures position of 5,748 contracts as of September 23, a decrease of 15,439 contracts as traders liquidated soybean length following what was deemed to be disappointing trade negotiations between President Trump and President Xi of China.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial soybean traders held a net-long position of 7,371 contracts as of September 23, the most recent CFTC report. The November to January soybean futures spread closed the week at 16 3/4 cents of carry, firmer through the week. National average soybean basis firmed 2 cents over the past week, to 78 cents under the November board, still the fourth weakest of the past decade, but showing improvement along with tightening spreads suggesting a demand push or potentially lower yields than the market was expecting, time will tell.

SEASONAL INDEX: Soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom in early October.  

PRICE PROBABILITY: In the latest week, the most active (November) soybean futures contract fell to the 7th percentile, a very attractive price location for buyers within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility for front month (November) soybean futures held at 4% as prices finished lower on the week.