DTN Wheat Analysis and Recommendations
10/14/2025
**Note To Readers**
Due to the ongoing government shutdown, updated Commitments of Traders data will not be included in DTN’s weekly Six Factors Strategy update until the CFTC report resumes its normal Friday afternoon publication. Thank you for your understanding.
The most recent recommendation was made on June 18, 2025; see Recommendations below.
POSITIONS:
**Note on 2024-25 Crop Sales**
On Dec. 21, the U.S. Congress passed the American Relief Act of 2025 which included $10B in economic aid to producers. The estimated per acre wheat payment of $30.69 equals a per bushel payment of approximately 60 cents per bushel of wheat based on the USDA’s 2024 national yield estimate. Final USDA payments may differ slightly from the early $30.69 per acre estimate.
2025-26: Sold the first 25% of 2025 HRW and SRW wheat production on June 18, 2025, with July KC futures near $5.60 and July Chicago futures near $5.64.
2024-25: Sold remaining 2024 SRW and HRW wheat production on June 18, 2025, for spot delivery with July 2025 Chicago wheat futures near $5.64 and July 2025 KC futures near $5.60. The DTN National SRW Index was likely near $5.15 and the DTN National HRW Index near $5.00.
2024-25: Entered orders to sell 50% of HRW and SRW wheat production on March 17, 2025, when May KC wheat futures hit $6.10, and May Chicago wheat futures hit $5.76.
2024-25: Sold the first 25% of 2024 HRW and SRW wheat production on May 29, 2024 when prices were near $7.19 (July KC), and $6.92 (July Chicago.
2023-24: Sold the final 25% of SRW and HRW wheat production on May 7, 2024, when prices were near $6.49 (July Chicago) and $6.68 July KC.
2023-24: Sold 25% of 2023 SRW and HRW wheat production on April 26, 2024, when prices were near $6.08 (May Chicago) and $6.43 (May KC).
2023-24: Sold 25% of 2023 SRW and HRW wheat production on Dec. 6, 2023, when prices were near $6.41 (March Chicago) and $6.69 (March KC).
2023-24: Sold 25% of 2023 SRW and HRW wheat production on July 25, 2023, when prices were near $7.55 (September Chicago) and $9.06 (September KC).
2022-23: Sold remaining 50% of 2022 SRW wheat production June 1, 2023, at $6.10 (July Chicago).
2022-23: Sold remaining 50% of 2022 HRW wheat production same day at $8.01 (July KC).
2022-23: Sold 50% of 2022 SRW wheat production May 26, 2023, at $6.13 (July Chicago).
2022-23: Sold 50% of 2022 hard winter wheat production May 15, 2023, at $9.04 1/4 (July KC).
2022-23: Sold 50% of 2022 hard winter wheat production May 15, 2023, at $9.04 Kansas City July 2023 wheat.
Chicago and KC wheat markets traded moderately lower over the last week, pressured by increased supply and lower world offers. For now, Chicago wheat and KC wheat are neutral, Type 3 markets.
December Chicago wheat finished up 3 1/2 cents to finish at $5.00 1/4 after settling another new low, recovering from oversold on better volume. December KC wheat set a new low, but rallied to finish 7 1/4 cents higher to close at $4.88 1/2, also likely short covering on strong volume. Both Chicago and KC wheat remain in a bear trend.
RECOMMENDATIONS*
(6-18-25)
2024-25 and 2025-26:
With July KC and Chicago futures having rallied around 50 cents over the past month from May lows, we recommend rewarding this rally by selling the remainder of the 2024 crops for both wheat varieties, while also selling the first 25% of the 2025 crops for both varieties. At the time of this recommendation, July KC futures were near $5.60 and the DTN National HRW Index estimated to be near $5.00. July Chicago futures were near $5.64 and the DTN National SRW Index estimated to be near $5.15.
(3-17-25)
2024-25:
With May Kansas City wheat futures having rallied near 60 cents above the early March lows, we recommend rewarding the price bounce by entering orders to sell 50% of 2024 HRW and SRW production when May Kansas City futures hit $6.10 and May Chicago wheat futures hit $5.76 respectively. According to DTN National Cash indices this should translate to a $5.40 cash offer for HRW, and $5.17 for SRW. Work with your local grain buyer for an ideal basis.
(5/29/24)
2024-25:
With July Kansas City wheat having moved as much as $1.77 higher since mid-April, take advantage of the rally and sell the first 25% of 2024 HRW production at this time. July KC wheat is trading near $7.19 at the time. Sell versus the July or September depending on your local choices.
With July Chicago wheat having moved as much as $1.70 higher just since mid-April, take advantage of the rally and sell the first 25% of 2024 SRW wheat production at this time. Chicago July wheat is trading near $6.92. Sell versus the July or September futures depending on your local choices
(5/7/24)
2023-24:
Take advantage of the sharp rally in both Chicago and KC wheat to sell the final 25% of each 2023 production of HRW and SRW wheat at this time. July Chicago was trading near $6.49 and July Kansas City near $6.68 at the time of the recommendation.
*DTN recommendations are general in nature and are not intended to be specific for any particular person or farming business. The buying and selling of futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone. DTN accepts no responsibility for actual trades made.