DTN Wheat Six Factors

TREND: The trend is bearish for December Chicago and Kansas City wheat.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial traders were net-short 81,682 futures contracts of Chicago wheat, an increase of 9,523 contracts in the week ending Sept. 23.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercials increased net longs to 81,083 contracts of Chicago wheat as of Sept. 23, an increase of 7,983 contracts. The December Chicago wheat contract is 17 1/2 cents under the March contract, a bearish indication of commercial demand for SRW wheat. December KC wheat is 21 1/2 cents below the March contract, also a bearish indication of commercial demand for HRW.

SEASONAL INDEX: Seasonal influence is weak for winter wheat, but winter wheat prices tend to peak in early August and bottom near Thanksgiving.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The most active Chicago wheat contract (Dec) fell to the 2nd percentile, an extremely inexpensive price location within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility fell to 4% after December Chicago wheat ended the week lower.