DTN Canola Six Factors

TREND: The trend for January canola is revised to sideways.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial traders were net-short 34,424 contracts of canola as of Nov. 18, the most recent CFTC data. Traders were net-buyers of 21,248 contracts from the previous week’s position.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial traders held a net-long position of 34,997 contracts of canola as of Nov. 18, the most recent CFTC report. January canola is currently priced C$12.60 below the March futures contract, a carry structure which narrowed slightly over the most recent week and remains among the highest degree of carry for the life of the contracts.

SEASONAL INDEX: Canola prices tend to peak between December and February and bottom in July or August.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The price of front month (January) canola closed the most recent week at the 12th percentile, an inexpensive price location for buyers within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: The three-month price volatility for front month (January) canola held at 4% as prices traded marginally higher on the week but remain near two-month lows.