DTN Early Word Grains

DTN Early Word Grains

EARLY MORNING GLOBEX NET CHANGES: September corn is down 3/4 cents and September soybeans are up 2 1/2 cents. September KC wheat is up 1/4 cents, September Chicago wheat is down 1/2 cents, and September MIAX Minneapolis wheat is up 1 cent.

CME GLOBEX RECAP: The dive continues for the row-crop markets, as new crop corn set a new contract low for the second session in a row on Tuesday, while the soybean trade gave up a rally only to finish double-digits lower. Wheat futures barely avoided contract lows. It’s one thing for the trade to witness unchanged fundamentals, short covering from outside investors, and trade tariff uncertainty, but lower-trending technical factors can create a double-edged sword regarding the chances of a price recovery. The grains, looking to the outside markets for support, won’t find much help. On Tuesday, crude oil futures traded lower for the fourth consecutive session, as the U.S. prepares to levy tariffs on Russia and its oil buyers. The U.S. dollar strengthened, making U.S. commodities less competitive in the global market.  

OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes Tuesday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 61.90 at 44,111.74 and the S&P 500 Index down 30.75 at 6,299.19. The 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 4.20%. Early Wednesday, September Dow Jones futures are up 170 points. European markets are mixed to mostly higher with the spot futures of the London FTSE 100 trading up 0.30%, spot futures of Germany’s DAX trading up 0.05% and spot futures of France’s CAC Index trading down 0.14%. Asian markets are higher with Japan’s Nikkei 225 index up 0.60% and China’s Shanghai Composite Index up 0.45%.

The September euro is up $0.0021 at $1.1626. The September U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.13 at 98.46. The September 30-year T-bond is down 19/32nds, while December gold is down $18.80 at $3,415.90 and September crude oil is up $1.14 at $66.30. October Malaysian palm oil futures are down 0.54%. On China’s Dalian exchange, September corn was down 0.2%, September soybeans were up 0.4%, September soybean meal was down 0.1% and September soybean oil was up 0.8%. On China’s Dalian exchange, September corn translated to $7.99. September soybeans translated to $14.11.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN:

Corn futures are lower early Wednesday, with December futures trading 1 1/2 cents lower at $4.00. The market is stuck in a pattern of lower lows and lower highs. Traders continue to see private analysts’ yield estimates ranging from 185-188 bushels per acre (bpa), above the current USDA trendline estimate of 181. Supporting those robust estimates is the July closing corn condition rating of 73% good to excellent. That rating is the second highest since 2016, when the final yield was well above trend. Technically, beyond $4.00, the 2024 December contract low in August near $3.90 is likely the bearish target for the trade. The national average basis for corn on Tuesday was steady at 16 cents under the September futures contract while the DTN National Corn Index was down 6 cents at $3.65. Brazil’s corn harvest at 81% complete, compared with 68% a week ago, is speeding along, helping that crop reach the export market sooner.

SOYBEANS:

Soybean futures are 1 1/4 cents lower early Wednesday, with November at $9.92 per bushel. June soybean exports at 55.14 mb were up 12.07% from a year ago but down 5.9% from May, according to the USDA’s Monthly Census data released on Tuesday. Soybean meal exports hit a June record of 1.34 million metric tons (mmt), down 2.7% from May. Soybean oil exports fell to an 8-month low in June to 42,458 mt. Brazil’s soybean area for 2025/2026 is estimated to rise 2%, 120 million acres, compared with a year ago, according to a private firm in Brazil. Meanwhile, separate estimates have Brazil’s soybean output in 2025/2026 at 178.2 mmt, up 5.6% from a year ago. The national average basis for soybeans was 2 cents weaker at 57 cents under the November futures contract, while the DTN National Soybean Index was down 6 cents at $9.34.

WHEAT:

Wheat futures are 1/2 cent lower in early morning trading on Wednesday, with December at $5.07 3/4. Chicago and Kansas City wheat near prices with a four in front of them. Export sales are steady but lack a big buyer stepping in to really move the market. The wheat market remains unstable due to geopolitical uncertainties, abundant global supplies, and volatile weather throughout most wheat-producing countries, especially in the Black Sea region. The national average basis for hard red winter (HRW) wheat on Tuesday was 1 cent weaker at 53 cents under the September futures contract, while the DTN National Hard Red Winter Wheat Index was down 13 cents at $4.52. Wheat exports in June totaled 1.71 mmt, a four-year high but down 20.4% from May, according to USDA’s Census data.