DTN Feed Corn Six Factors

TREND: The trend for March corn is sideways for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial corn traders held a net short futures position of 7,835 contracts as of Feb. 17 and were net-buyers of 10,495 contracts during the CFTC reporting period, as prices have rallied off lows set following the bearish January WASDE report.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial corn traders held a net-long position of 25,990 contracts as of Feb. 17 and were net-sellers of 11,348 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. The March 2026 contract is priced 12 cents lower than the May 2026 contract, moving wider (more carry) through the week, to the highest degree of carry through the life of the contracts. National average corn basis was steady through the week at 33 cents under the March board, suggesting the return of mild weather across the U.S. in early February may have led to increased corn sales/movement through the week.

SEASONAL INDEX: Corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom in early October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The front month (March) corn futures contract finished the most recent week down a point and at the 10th percentile, a very attractive location for buyers within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility for the most active (March) corn contract held at 4% after prices traded just slightly lower through the most recent week.