DTN Feed Corn Six Factors

TREND: The trend for May corn is sideways for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial corn traders held a net-long futures position of 90,059 contracts as of March 3, and were net-buyers of 81,231 contracts during the CFTC reporting period as prices rallied on geopolitical tensions ahead of and after U.S. and Israel attacks on Iran.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial corn traders held a net-short position of 59,782 contracts as of March 3, and were net-sellers of 72,237 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. The May 2026 contract is priced 10 1/4 cents lower than the July 2026 contract, widening (more carry) through the week, and among the highest degree of carry between the two contracts through their trading life. National average corn basis firmed 2 cents through the week to 39 cents under the May board, still the third weakest of the past decade for early March.

SEASONAL INDEX: Corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom in early October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The front month (May) corn futures contract finished the most recent week up 3 points and at the 17th percentile, still an attractive location for buyers within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility for the most active (May) corn contract rose to 5% this week after prices traded sharply higher for the second consecutive week, hitting almost ten-month highs in the process.