DTN Feed Corn Six Factors

TREND: The trend for May corn is revised to higher for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial corn traders held a net-long futures position of 257,781 contracts as of March 10 and were net-buyers of 167,722 contracts during the CFTC reporting period as prices rallied on sharply higher energy markets following the onset of the U.S.-Israel and Iran War.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial corn traders held a net-short position of 209,182 contracts as of March 10 and were net-sellers of 149,400 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. The May 2026 contract is priced 11 1/4 cents lower than the July 2026 contract, widening (more carry) through the week, and among the highest degree of carry between the two contracts through their trading life. National average corn basis faded 2 cents through the week to 41 cents under the May board, the second weakest of the past decade for mid-March.

SEASONAL INDEX: Corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom in early October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The front-month (May) corn futures contract finished the most recent week up 2 points and at the 19th percentile, still an attractive location for buyers within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility for the most active (May) corn contract rose to 6% this week after prices traded higher for the third consecutive week.