DTN Feed Corn Six Factors

TREND: The trend for May corn is revised to higher for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial corn traders held a net-long futures position of 375,360 contracts as of March 24, and were net-buyers of 63,018 contracts during the CFTC reporting period as prices rallied on bullish influence from energy markets due to the ongoing war in the Middle East.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial corn traders held a net-short position of 314,222 contracts as of March 24, and were net-sellers of 58,599 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. The May 2026 contract is priced 11 3/4 cents lower than the July 2026 contract, widening (more carry) through the week, and still among the highest degree of carry between the two contracts through their trading lives. National average corn basis held steady through the week at 41 cents under the May board, the weakest basis of the past decade for late March.

SEASONAL INDEX: Corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom in early October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The front month (May) corn futures contract finished the most recent week unchanged at the 18th percentile, an attractive location for buyers within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility for the most active (May) corn contract held at 7% this week after prices traded narrowly lower for the second consecutive week.