Cotton’s Pendulum Swings Up

The cotton market is attempting to put together another positive session, albeit one that will be devoid of range and volume. Traders are essentially in neutral gear as they await export data, the CFTC update, and any new China trade revelations.

There were 69 notices issued against the October contract, all from Term Commodities. The tenders were stopped by BNP Paribas (44), Morgan Stanley (1). and SG Americas (21). Delivery runs through Oct. 9.

USDA just issued its weekly export sales report with the following numbers:

“Net sales of Upland totaling 86,100 RB for 2025/2026 were down 54 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for India (27,300 RB), Turkey (22,300 RB, including 3,700 RB switched from Pakistan), Bangladesh (15,400 RB), Vietnam (13,500 RB), and Italy (4,400 RB), were offset by reductions for Pakistan (3,700 RB) and Peru (100 RB). Exports of 137,200 RB were up 14 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (41,700 RB), India (21,000 RB), Bangladesh (20,600 RB), Mexico (8,500 RB), and Turkey (8,500 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 8,500 RB for 2025/2026 were up 66 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Colombia (6,400 RB), Pakistan (900 RB), Bangladesh (800 RB), India (400 RB), and Guatemala (100 RB). Exports of 5,200 RB were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were to India (3,300 RB), Peru (1,300 RB), Bangladesh (300 RB), Vietnam (200 RB), and Indonesia (100 RB).”

On Friday, the CFTC will issue its Commitments of Traders report. Last week’s calculation, per the Tuesday settlement, the managed-money funds had brought back some 9,800 positions, thereby reducing their overall bearish stake to 59,061 contracts. Their record bearish carry is slightly below the 80,000-contract mark.

Daily chart support for December cotton stands at 66.00 cents and 65.50 cents, with resistance at 66.75 cents and 67.45 cents. Thursday morning’s estimated volume is 4,365 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 890-7780.