Cotton Lacks Bullish Motivation

After attempting a couple of “feeble” upside jabs this week, the cotton market is back under some pressure today. Traders will key in on export sales, the CPI, Friday’s supply-demand update and CFTC information in assessing the next probable direction for prices.

USDA just released its weekly export sales report with the following numbers:

“Net sales of Upland totaling 129,600 RB for 2025/2026 were down 47 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from the prior 4-week average.

“Increases primarily for Vietnam (61,500 RB, including decreases of 1,000 RB), China (17,600 RB), India (13,800 RB), Pakistan (12,700 RB, including decreases of 800 RB), and Turkey (8,400 RB), were offset by reductions for Thailand (200 RB).

“Exports of 130,200 RB were down 16 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (43,500 RB), Pakistan (19,600 RB), India (11,700 RB), Mexico (9,100 RB), and Bangladesh (8,900 RB).

“Net sales of Pima totaling 1,200 RB for 2025/2026 were down 22 percent from the previous week and 43 percent from the prior 4-week average.

“Increases were primarily for India (800 RB), Indonesia (300 RB), and Japan (100 RB).

“Exports of 5,800 RB were up 32 percent from the previous week, but down 34 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to India (4,300 RB), China (700 RB), Bangladesh (300 RB), Vietnam (300 RB), and Colombia (100 RB).”

Thursday’s CPI report (consumer inflation) showed month-over-month inflation was 0.4% versus 0.3%. The year-over-year number was 2.9%, unchanged.

Friday at noon EDT, USDA will update its supply-demand tables in the September WASDE. The average expectation for U.S. cotton production stands at 13.54 million bales, up from 13.20 million bales reported in August. Exports are expected at 12.06 million bales versus 12.00 million last month. Domestic ending stocks are anticipated at 3.90 million bales versus 3.60 million seen last month. World cotton production for 2025/26 is expected to come in around 116.46 million bales versus 116.62 million bales in August, and world ending stocks are expected at 73.59 million bales compared to the previous 73.91 million bales.

Also, on Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitment of Traders data. Last week saw the managed-money funds sell-short an additional 6,438 positions, swelling their overall net short carry to 66,000-plus contracts. Their record short position is shy of 80,000 contracts.

Daily chart support for December cotton stands at 66.15 cents and 65.80 cents, with resistance at 67.10 cents and 67.60 cents. Thursday morning’s estimated volume is 7,575 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 890-7780.