Cotton Tries to Halt

The cotton market is unchanged to slightly lower Tuesday morning as some traders are getting wary and weary of the long-term bear market. That is, there are other, more dynamic markets to trade such as gold and silver. Still, cotton’s basic supply-demand fundamentals remain definitely negative.

Monday USDA issued its weekly Crop Progress report. Its data showed that 47% of the 2025 crop is now rated good to excellent. That number is down from 52% of the previous week, but still higher than the 37% reading of last year. The 5-year average for this date is 42%. The report also showed 12% of the U.S. crop was harvested, right on the average. Texas was 23% harvested versus an average of 20%.

Delivery for the October cotton starts on Wednesday, Sept. 24. Its notice period will run through Oct. 9.

On Thursday, USDA will release its weekly export sales data. Last week’s tally showed net sales of 186,000 bales, which was up 44% weekly. Shipments were 120,500 bales, down some 8% from the previous week. 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to make some remarks at a speech this week. Supposedly he will reiterate the need for caution in cutting rates, a view a number of Fed officials expressed on Monday. However, the newest Fed Governor Stephen Miran, a pick by President Donald Trump, said the central bank is misreading how tightly it has set monetary policy and risks undermining the labor market.

Daily chart support for December cotton stands at 65.90 cents and 65.05 cents, with resistance at 66.70 cents and 67.25 cents. Tuesday morning’s estimated volume is 6,645 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 890-7780.