DTN Wheat Six Factors

TREND: The trend is bearish for December Chicago and Kansas City wheat.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial traders were net-short 72,159 futures contracts of Chicago wheat, a decrease of 8,877 contracts in the week ending Sept. 16

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercials decreased net longs to 73,100 contracts of Chicago wheat as of Sept. 16, a decrease of 8.877 contracts. The December Chicago wheat contract is 15 1/2 cents under the March contract, a bearish indication of commercial demand for SRW wheat. December KC wheat is 16 3/4 cents below the March contract, also a bearish indication of commercial demand for HRW.

SEASONAL INDEX: Seasonal influence is weak for winter wheat, but winter wheat prices tend to peak in early August and bottom near Thanksgiving.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The most active Chicago wheat contract (Dec) remained at the 3rd percentile, an extremely inexpensive price location within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility remained at 4% after December Chicago wheat ended the week higher.