Periodic Updates on the Futures Markets

March canola is up $4.40 per metric ton (mt) with May canola also up $4.70/mt. May soybean oil is up 1.06 cents/pound, May European rapeseed is unavailable and April Malaysian palm oil is unavailable. May oats are up 3 1/2 cents/bushel. April crude oil is up $.11 per barrel, April ULSD is up $.0497 per gallon, and the March Canadian dollar is up .00010 at .73135. The March U.S. Dollar Index is down .175 at 97.555 and the March Brazilian real is up .00125 at 0.19400.

It appears now there must have been significant pent-up buying interest waiting for the March option-expiry to pass (on Friday) given the gains seen in grain and oilseed markets as the morning progressed.

Stagflation concerns may well be inspiring commodity index traders to be aggressive buyers given the much weaker than expected fourth-quarter GDP figures along with hotter than expected inflation data seen Friday morning. Strong corn and wheat export inspection data released Monday morning may also be helping.

The market has clearly shrugged off concerns that the lack of tariff threats will hurt exports. China wants a mutually beneficial trading relationship with the U.S. without the need for threats, as has been clearly seen over the years. In fact, with the IEEPA tariffs gone, the market may be expecting additional business from China based on the price reaction. 

It appears financial markets do not like the uncertainty or the frustration expressed by foreign countries. The EU decision to postpone any votes on their trade deal with the U.S. over the confusion is a perfect example. Treasuries are higher with the stock market and U.S. dollar lower.

Energy markets are higher following the U.S. decision to evacuate dozens of staff members from the embassy in Beirut over fear of an escalation of tensions with Iran. That combined with the severe winter storm impacting the Northeast U.S. which was already supporting the heating oil market.